No, Wiseman
Before the pandemic, Robert Li, director of the U.S.-Asia Center for Tourism and Hospitality Studies and professor at Temple University, was a consultant to destinations and travel companies interested in entering the Chinese market.
Disney called him. CLIA invited him to Seatrade to speak at the public affairs committee. He was commissioned to do a large-scale study as the U.S. government and the U.S. Travel Industry Association (now U.S. Travel) prepared to sign a memorandum of understanding with the Chinese government to promote group outbound travel from China to the U.S.
But at some point during the pandemic, Li stopped following trends in Chinese outbound tourism.
“It breaks my heart,” he told me earlier this week. “I see talented and passionate friends leaving the China outbound travel business.”
He joined many in the U.S. travel industry who 'paused' Chinese tourism after travel to and from the country came to a near halt when the pandemic was declared. And with China being one of the last countries to open its borders after the pandemic, interest in restarting tourism with China has been put on the back burner for most of 2023.
But the travel disruption is reversing at a rapid pace across nearly every sector of the industry.
In January, Marriott International CEO Anthony Capuano told Travel Weekly, “Our China business has fully recovered in terms of RevPAR. And with more travel in and out of China, we will see growth in both our China business and our regional and global businesses.”
In late February, the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) approved a 30% increase in the number of round-trip weekly passenger flights by Chinese airlines.
And last week, Royal Caribbean announced its return to China, joining MSC Cruises to sail outbound itineraries designed for Chinese citizens.
Before the pandemic, Chinese travelers to the U.S. had the longest stays and highest spending (though not the highest daily spending) among inbound visitors.
Will they come back?
Finn Partners, a PR firm working with CSG Research, conducted a survey of affluent Chinese travelers to gauge their sentiments on a variety of travel-related issues. They published the results in a report titled Outbound Rebound 2023: The Return of the Chinese Traveler.
The results presented a relatively rosy picture. “Before the pandemic, Chinese tourists were the world’s biggest travel spenders. Now they plan to spend even more,” the report said. “Chinese travelers are budgeting an average of 15% higher than their actual spending in 2019.”
And in what appears to be good news for inbound travel in the U.S., which has lost market share to competing destinations since the pandemic, the U.S. ranked as the No. 1 long-haul destination that Chinese travelers said they planned to visit in the next 12 months. “Affluent Chinese travelers are eager to revisit places they enjoyed on past trips,” the report said. “They will prioritize evergreen destinations they have already visited.”
Yet when asked to rank satisfaction with the six long-distance countries on that list, the US tied with the UK for last place.
This does not mean that dissatisfaction is high. All the countries listed scored between 83% and 89%. However, it is somewhat paradoxical that the countries that wealthy Chinese people most want to visit are also the ones with the lowest satisfaction.
I wonder if this division reflects growing tensions between the two countries. If you ask wealthy Chinese where they want to go, they'll probably want to see the United States. Having been to America once, I know there is still a lot to see in this country. However, expressing satisfaction (as opposed to a desire to go) may be seen as a sign of approval, and there may be a reflex to withhold that approval altogether out of loyalty to one's country.
When I asked Lee when he thought Chinese tourists would return, he said: “I don't have a crystal ball, but I believe that when we see Chinese students returning to American universities, that will be a strong indicator of the likelihood of them coming back. When they come back in earnest, we'll see Chinese tourists coming back.”
He said he still thinks there is a demand for U.S. education, but when he talks to parents looking at U.S. schools, the biggest concern is safety. “Every mass shooting makes headlines,” he said. “But there is no data showing that crime is down in big cities.”
In fact, the Finn/CSG report cites five “deal breakers” that are driving wealthy Chinese travelers away from their destinations. Topping the list for 56% of respondents was “poor safety.”
Geoff Freeman, CEO of US Travel, acknowledged research showing growing concerns about gun violence among people considering entering the U.S., but Brand USA reported that “there is a gap between what people say and what they do.”
“There is still pent-up demand,” Li said. “The market potential is still there. The US market will have to go through another learning curve. Patience will be needed on both sides.”
