Trump’s claim -Are tariffs increasing the US economy?

President Donald Trump would have called his favorite words in the dictionary. But business investments should be close to obsession.

As of last month, he said that more than $ 12 trillion (8.8TN) was “actually committed.” “No one has seen the same number as us,” he said.

In fact, the figure was actually amazing, and the United States has tripled about 4TN last year with a total private investment reported last year.

As Trump claims, the sudden gauze of business spending to set up the stage of the new Golden Economy era is all theaters?

First of all: It’s too early in Trump’s term, so it’s too early to have clear data to assess his claim. The US government announces business investment statistics every three months.

In January to March, which reflects Trump’s position for two months, the company said that it was a strong jump in business investment, but analysts were partially crooked by the Boeing strike.

According to other anecdotes and survey evidence, the effect of Trump’s investment is much more gradual than he claimed.

“We’re almost no data at this point and almost all the information we have at this point is probably for investment projects planned and ordered last year.

“My speculation has not been slightly reduced in business investments.

Roche, a Swiss pharmaceutical company that announced plans to invest $ 500 billion in the United States for five years in April, is a good example.

Some of the projects included in the sum have already been in the work.

Executives also warned that they could plan to plan some of Trump’s ideas, especially drug prices.

“The pharmaceutical industry should consider the costs, including investment,” the company said.

Trump usually points out the promises of famous companies such as Apple and modernity.

The White House keeps this announcement, but in early June, the total new investment is about 5.3TN, less than half of Trump’s cited.

Even that figure has expanded.

About one -third of the 62 investments on the list includes a plan that participated in the work at least partially before Trump took office. for example:

• Stellantis made a promise in 2023 on a $ 5 billion plan list to reopen the factory in Belvidere, Illinois.

• Another promise includes items that have traditionally never considered investments. It includes taxes and salaries paid to the company’s workers, such as Apple’s $ 50 billion spending pledge.

According to Goldman Sachs’ analysis, the new investments in mid -May appear to be nearly $ 130 billion.

This amount has reached $ 3 billion, not included in foreign government investments, after the researchers considered the risk of some projects or anyway.

“We can’t ignore it economically, but this increase will not reach the recent headline,” they wrote.

A White House spokesman, Kush Desai spokesman, expressed concern that the administration’s claim was not consistent with reality when the number was pressed.

“The Trump administration is leading investment in the United States using a multi -faceted approach.

The BBC has invested in the White House list and approached more than 20 companies.

Many did not respond or mention the previous statement.

Others admitted that some projects admitted the current administration in advance.

The manager of politicians and companies is not unexpected.

But Martin Chorzempa, a senior researcher at PeterSen International Economics, says the Trump administration has granted a reason to pump the plan by flattering the president with tariffs and other changes.

“The company that makes a presentation is a way to get the current benefits without having to hold (expenditure vows) when the situation changes.” “There is a powerful incentive for companies to provide as big as possible.”

It does not say that Trump policy does not make a difference.

Customs threats are “clear catalysts” that pharmaceutical companies can plan more manufacturing in the United States.

But he added that there is a limit to what threats can be achieved.

Pharma Investments will be developed over time in the sector prepared for growth anyway.

And they come from a company that sells brand drugs, not cheap and general medicines that many Americans depend on and in China and India.

Farrreelly also warned that investments in the sector could be at risk in the long term, given the uncertainty of the government’s approach to tariffs, drug prices and scientific research.

Overall, many analysts expect the US investment growth to slow this year due to policy uncertainty.

Gutierrez, an economist at the University of Washington, wants Trump to promote investment in the United States, but he believes that his emphasis on global competition is wrong.

His own work shows that the decline in investment is partially due to industrial integration. Now, some large companies dominate the sector, and there are few incentives to invest to compete.

In addition, the type of investment that the company is making is generally inexpensive items such as software, not machines and factories.

Professor Gutierrez said the tariff would not solve this problem.

“The way it is done and the type of instrument they use is not the best way to achieve this goal. It takes more time to solve this problem.”