Can this be the most important NATO since the Cold War?

After the United States starts a direct attack on Iran’s nuclear field, the world will take a break from the world, and US President Donald Trump is expected in the NATO for the NATO summit on Tuesday.

This will be Trump’s first NATO meeting after being re -elected. In the past, alliance members are angry about the US security guarantee. European allies are desperate to prove him wrong. They hope to persuade him not to draw him on the continent.

“A few weeks before Trump returned to the White House (relationship with Europe, etc.), a few weeks ago, we talked to me a high -level diplomat that he talked about anonymous conditions.

“It would have been a disaster for Russia and China to watch the Western weaknesses.”

But Moscow and Beijing can still bring popcorn.

NATO’s Secretary -General Mark Rutte designed a summit around Trump. He aimed to flatter him by agreeing with a large -scale hike of defense expenditures to show that Europeans would be more responsible for their security.

RUTTE also hoped to avoid potential collisions or explosions between Trump and his allies by focusing on money narrowly on money.

Carefully deployed plans can collapse.

According to the next movement of Iran, the US commander can decide to remain in Washington’s situation room at the last minute.

If he comes to Europe, how can he not talk about the Middle East when considering what he is in crisis? It will introduce the risk of the fall of the United States and European allies who advocate diplomacy for bombing when they come to Iran.

Trump likes victory and he has a very thin skin. He won’t want to feel non -approval at the NATO meeting.

Separately, he has been guaranteed to win the headline in the Summit, and European countries are trying to consume 5%of GDP for defense as required for the first week in the White House.

“This summit is about reliability.” Matthew Whitaker Nato’s US ambassador said it.

But Spain insisted that it had an opt out in a new expenditure plan on Sunday.

Other European allies struggling to find extra cash are also strict.

The bottom line is: Europe must maintain great military and nuclear power for us. That’s how Rutte manages to sign a new big spending on Bar Spain, a leader who is reluctant to bar spain. It is a tremendous dedication.

But former US ambassador to Julianne Smith NATO told me.

It is not clear whether the United States will join the declaration of termination that identifies Russia as a major threat to NATO Alliance this week.

As Trump’s ultimate guardian as the ultimate guardian of the United States as the ultimate guardian of the United States, trying to end the war in Ukraine, he was shaken by Trump’s gently smooth approach.

Also, on Friday night, Trump was able to almost justify the huge 5% defense spending goals of the allies, and then the European diplomats were almost able to change their teeth.

“I don’t think we should do it, but I think they should do it,” he said. “We’ve been supporting NATO for a long time. So we don’t think we should do it, but I think NATO countries should absolutely.”

Then European leaders may now be better in terms of self -defense.

He may be the most blunt and most unpredictable, but Trump is never the first US president to move to another priority area in Europe, especially in India and the Pacific. President Obama was very clear about it in 2011.

Nuclear weapons are stored in Italy, Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. There are 100,000 combat preparation troops across Europe, and 20,000 people in Eastern Europe were sent by President Viden after the full -fledged Ukraine invasion.

The continent is particularly shortened by Germany and Poland, especially for the next few years, with a large number of ground forces. But Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director of Royal United Services Institute, says Europe’s dependence on the United States has deepened.

I depended on Washington for information collection, monitoring, air force ability, command and control. The United States has played a pivotal leadership role in NATO and has worked with members.

Chaalmers says this is a lack of US military in Asia and a necessary ability. If you are removed from Europe, it takes a long time to replicate.

Not long ago, many NATO countries in Europe avoided continental abilities, such as expanding French nuclear umbrellas into other allies. “Oh, we don’t need it anymore. We go out!”

But now, Europe is not only trying to persuade Washington, but also takes on more security responsibility in preparation for the US president’s decision to withdraw more in Europe.

Nobody knows what Trump’s intention is. The European NATO leaders have recently been greatly rescued when his executive has recently assumed that the US Air Force Lieutenant Alexus Grynkewich has traditionally assumed the US’s status of the European commander of the NATO. It suggested a dedication to the defense alliance.

But Washington is conducting its own military spending and defense review. The announcement is expected in the fall. It is unlikely that there will be no new US funds for Ukraine. 20,000 additional units in Eastern Europe are likely to be the first US military on the continent.

Nevertheless, Poland said he would attend this week’s NATO summit with confidence. In contrast to Spain, I think Warsaw consumes more defense income (4.7%of GDP) than other NATO members including the United States. It aims to build the strongest army in Europe.

During the Cold War, Poland lived under the shadows of the Soviet Union. Ukraine in the country. It is not difficult to persuade Poland as defense is a top priority.

This debate becomes more difficult for politicians in countries far from Russia. Spanish media are full of speculation that the disagreement of opinion on defense expenditure can surpass the state of the state of the state.

NATO agrees with his defense expenditure, and he has a 5%goal in two parts while arranging Trump.

Camille Grand, the head of the defense assistant of NATO and the current defense expert of the European Foreign Relations Committee, said that Europe coincides with US 3.4%of GDP’s US spending.

But you are playing with that figure. We are talking about what the government should spend billions of dollars in defense. Money must come out somewhere.

The new tax -the method or more borrowings of Estonia is very expensive for countries like Italy, which already has a large amount of government debt. Another option is a reduction in welfare spending known as “gun or butter” or “tanks or pensions” economics.

The UK emphasized the need for more military spending in recent years through strategic defense reviews, but Charlmers said that the Dunning Street and most other European governments did not fully prepare for the election for the trade -offs that new defense investments needed.

The timetable to reach the 5% goal is the key. The NATO allies demanded a window of 7-10 years. NATO secretary suggested that it could be too late. Moscow’s economy is a big economy on the basis of war, and Russia will be able to attack NATO countries in five years, he said.

Defending Europe is not about how much the government spends. It is important for them to spend money.

The big weakness of Europe is that there are many duplicate and incompatible functions throughout the continent. For example, there are 178 different types of weapons systems and 17 different tanks in the EU alone. Aside from defense contracts and pride, it is another visible debate that is scheduled to be side this week.

So what kind of clear results can we expect?

It depends on the person who arrives in the Netherlands of Cirforce One.

Ambassador NATO Trump said the meeting could be historical.

The “moment of the basin” is another high -level diplomat to me. And perhaps “the most important NATO summit after the Cold War”: Europe began to spend as much as the United States and truly took responsibility for its own security.

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