Our football betting experts, Jones Knows, provide insight into the midweek card of Premier League matches.
Chelsea v Leeds, Tuesday 7.30pm
One of my favorite betting angles this season is a center forward fouling a center back.
The Premier League is a bruising product to watch this season. The data and the eye test tell the same story in that the league has tilted toward directness with a much greater emphasis on winning on first contact. And when that happens, center forwards don’t just score goals, they start giving fouls.
What are the results? Center backs are being fouled more often than the market expects.
Joao Pedro came alive under Liam Rosenior, producing electric performances as a centre-forward and committing a fair number of fouls in that position as well. In six starts he played as a centre-forward under the new manager. He committed eight fouls. Joe Rodon is in the firing line when he draws a foul and is a bulky 4/1 with Sky Bet +2 to be fouled.
Score Prediction: 2-1
Everton v Bournemouth, Tuesday 7.30pm
Everton midfielder James Garner is in strong play with +2 fouls for this match at 11/4 with Sky Bet. Garner has achieved this mark in 10 of his 20 starts in central midfield this season, showing he is no stranger to stepping up in big moments.
Meanwhile, Bournemouth’s Alex Scott has been a foul draw with 14 draws in his last eight games. The battle between Garner and Scott in the center of the park sees the Everton man mount a few challenges as he tries to disrupt Scott’s rhythm.
Score Prediction: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: James Garner +2 fouled (11/4, Sky Bet)
Tottenham v Newcastle, Tuesday 7.30pm
With just two wins in 16 Premier League games, Tottenham are suddenly on the decline, sitting just six points adrift of safety.
Sky Bet doesn’t mess around either. Spurs could now drop to 10/1.
If they don’t find form quickly and West Ham keep winning, that relegation scrap could very well become a reality indeed. The situation is getting serious.
Thomas Frank’s Spurs now have just 10/1 odds of being relegated
Spurs easily turned around here on October 19, and Sky Bet also has them win just once in their last 11 Premier League home games.
Meanwhile, when the chips are down, Eddie Howe will usually weaponize the frustration within the home fan base in the hopes of giving Newcastle a result and forcing the north London stalwarts to attack them. That’s why an early start, making the Newcastle/Newcastle half-time/full-time market at 5/2 via Sky Bet, expected to be a smart way to increase the odds of an away win.
Score Prediction: 1-2
West Ham v Manchester United, Tuesday 8.15pm
One standout bet on the midweek card is Crysensio Summerville, who will have a shot on target at Evens via Sky Bet. The winger has been a thorn in the side of Premier League defenses in recent times, recording nine shots on target in his last six games.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s tactical system certainly suits Summerville, giving him the freedom to move into dangerous positions and create key moments. Expect Somerville to buzz in for another goal attempt against a Manchester United side that showed vulnerability down the wing.
Score Prediction: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Crysensio Summerville +1 Target Hit Rate (Evens with Sky Bet)
Aston Villa v Brighton, Wednesday 7.30pm
Brighton’s wobble is a great betting advantage to take advantage of. Just one win in 12 games is not temporary, it is a crisis. However, the market still considers it a risky situation. Notoriously ruthless and efficient at home, Villa offer maximum points via Sky Bet on October 11. Looking at what Brighton has to offer, it looks generous.
Fabian Herzeler’s side are struggling for creativity and confidence. The end could be coming for him as Brighton manager.
Score Prediction: 2-0
Crystal Palace v Burnley, Wednesday 7.30pm
Jorgen Strand Larsen played like a man with a big point to prove in his debut match. It wasn’t always pretty or easy to watch, but he made his presence felt in Brighton’s 1-0 win. The striker, who picked up three fouls and a yellow card in his first appearance, was noticeably eager to assert himself and express himself.
Strand Larsen averages around 1.9 fouls per game in the Premier League. That’s almost two yellow cards every 90 minutes. He has the aura of a striker who plays as if it’s only a matter of time before he passes, makes a mistake or loses his temper in frustration. Like he did at Brighton when he cynically pulled his shirt to block an attack.
Jorgen Strand Larsen is carded by Sky Bet at 19/2.
Strand Larsen is a striker. Of course. But he is a striker who is sensitive, combative and clearly wants to get results. Sky Bet’s odds on the card are a massive 19/2.
Score Prediction: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Jorgen Strand Larsen will receive the card (19/2, Sky Bet)
Manchester City v Fulham, Wednesday 7.30pm
Pep Guardiola’s version of Manchester City always gives you a chance. It is far from a controlled and possessive style.
Meanwhile, Fulham are not here to make up the numbers. Both teams have managed to score in 12 of their last 15 games and have achieved the feat in their last four visits to the Etihad. It’s not luck, it’s a proven blueprint for being able to counter against City, capitalize on mistakes and play freely.
City will score – of course they will – but Fulham are likely to join the party. Both teams to score are 4/5 with Sky Bet.
Score Prediction: 2-1
Nottingham Forest v Wolves, Wednesday 7.30pm
Morgan Gibbs-White and Wolves. Make no mistake. There is bad blood there.
Every touch will be scrutinized, every run will be booed, and emotions will explode when he gets on the scoresheet.
Gibbs-White isn’t shy either. He’s combative and passionate, and he’s rated at 10/1 to score and pick up cards at Sky Bet, and the value is huge. Imagine the scene. Gibbs-White’s goal sparked celebrations in what has now become a very big game for Forest. Shirts may come off and result in reservations.
Combine the two via the Sky Bet BuildABet feature and 10/1 looks like a steal.
Score Prediction: 2-1
Sunderland v Liverpool, Wednesday 8.15pm
If you want a betting market that rewards understanding of the football game rather than predicting perfection, the “Foul” market is your best bet.
Bookmakers’ price fouls differ significantly from averages and historical data. What they struggle to fully explain is their role within specific matchups. It’s like a foul-laden center forward playing against a crafty centre-back. That’s what we have here.
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Gary Neville felt there was ‘no need for VAR to intervene’ during Liverpool’s dramatic ending to Manchester City, which led to Rayan Cherki’s goal being disallowed and Dominik Szoboszlai receiving a red card.
This isn’t about Van Dijk losing control or his cool. That rarely happens.
It’s about Van Dijk being dragged into a very specific type of duel against an opponent named Brian Bobbey, who is not a subtle centre-forward. His game is built on confrontation.
Last season at Ajax he averaged 1.8 fouls per 90 minutes, a remarkable figure for a striker playing in a team with a lot of possession. What’s even more telling is that he’s recently had a tendency to pick up nine fouls in his last six games against high-profile opponents. Van Dijk has a +1 foul at 10/11 with Sky Bet.
Score Prediction: 1-1
Brentford v Arsenal, Thursday 8.15pm
Arsenal are scoring goals at a relentless pace, conceding goals here and there, and making life very, very difficult for anyone trying to keep quiet. This is the perfect cocktail to back a goal line of over 2.5 goals when the odds are near the even money mark. Their last 13 games have averaged 3.4 goals per 90 minutes, with 10 of those games exceeding 2.5 goals.
Arsenal alone could easily cover this line, even if Brentford don’t contribute. They have scored three or more goals in 10 of their last 13 games. A ruthless form of attack from a team that knows exactly how to punish mistakes.
Score Prediction: 1-3 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: 2.5+ GOALS (Evens with Sky Bet)
Follow midweek matches live on the Sky Sports app and watch free match highlights after full-time.
