Prediction market users placed big bets surrounding the bombing of Iran by American and Israeli forces and profited from it.

According to Bloomberg, Polymarket saw $529 million traded in contracts tied to the timing of the attack. An analysis by analytics firm Bubblemaps SA found that six newly created accounts made $1 million in profit by correctly betting that the United States would attack Iran by February 28. This is behavior that may indicate insider trading.

While this bet may simply reflect broader speculation about US intentions toward Iran, Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman said the circulation of information “relevant to war or conflict”, combined with Polymarket’s anonymity, “could incentivize informed participants to take action early.”

In January, analytics firm Polysights noted a notable surge in bets on the possibility that Iran’s now-deceased Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would no longer assume the role by the end of March.

In response to concerns that such bets could inherently provide financial incentives for assassinations, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said, “We don’t list markets that are directly tied to death. If there are markets where the potential outcome is related to death, we design rules to prevent people from profiting from death.” He added that Kalshi would reimburse all commissions resulting from these bets.