Six Nations permutations: How can France, Scotland and Ireland win? | rugby union news

The 2026 Six Nations will reach its peak this weekend with Scotland, France and Ireland still competing to take the trophy home.

A stunning fourth round in which England lost to Italy for the first time and shocked Scotland saw France set up a captivating finale to the match on Saturday 14 March.

Wales are desperate to avoid taking home another wooden spoon despite their progress under Steve Tandy, while England are looking to end their humble campaign on a high.

So who needs to happen and what needs to happen to win?

france

Heading into the final round, France are tied for first place with Scotland, but are in the strongest position due to a large points gap (+79 against +21).

The surest way to win the title for the second year in a row is to beat England with a try bonus point.

If France and England finish on equal points, their goal differential advantage would still be enough to walk away with the trophy.

If Ireland beat Scotland, any win would guarantee France the title, while a draw in Dublin would mean France could settle for a draw and still take the trophy.

France and England will play the final match of this tournament.

The Granite City

Scotland’s win over France in the fourth round gave Scotland a chance to win their first title since 1999, a year before the tournament was expanded to the Six Nations in 2000.

But allowing France to leave Edinburgh with a try bonus point could be costly.

It is the first of three matches on Saturday when Scotland face Ireland, who have not lost in a Six Nations since 2017 and have not won in Dublin since 2010.

Scotland need a bonus point win against Ireland and hope France fail in four attempts against England.

Scotland and France are currently level on 16 points and, if locked in points, Scotland would need to overcome a 58-point gap to win the Championship.

If France draw or lose against England, Scotland will win whatever victory they can against Ireland.

Ireland

Ireland’s campaign began with a heavy loss to France before a near miss against Italy in the second round that will seriously undercut them heading into the 2026 Six Nations.

However, after a crushing win over England and a win over Wales, they are just two points behind the top two teams, so the title is still within reach.

The first key to Ireland’s hopes is that France fails to beat England. Because if Les Bleus wins, they won’t be able to catch up on points.

A France-England draw means an Ireland bonus point win will clinch the title.

Additionally, if England beat France and Scotland, they would also win the Championship.

What about the table bottom?

England went into the Six Nations hoping for a Grand Slam. Instead, they are leaving with their heads down.

They have not finished a tournament lower than fifth since 2021, which was also the year Wales most recently won the Six Nations.

Wales are looking to avoid a third successive wooden spoon despite an improved tournament under Tandy, who only took charge of the team in September 2025.

They looked set to end their 13-match Six Nations losing run as they held the lead against Scotland for most of the game, but were denied a last-minute effort by the opposition.

To avoid the wooden spoon, Wales need a big bonus point win over Italy and a crushing French win over England. That would see them finish ahead of England on goal difference.

This will be a tough task as Wales’ point differential is currently -96 and England’s +4.

Steve Borthwick’s side will be keen to avoid a fourth successive defeat for the first time in Six Nations history, while Italy cannot afford to finish bottom of the table regardless of the result.