Bogota, Colombia – With challenges to public debate, accusations of soccer shirts being used as political symbols and increasingly heated exchanges on social media, the campaign for Colombia’s presidential runoff is already underway, a day after Abelardo de la Espriella emerged as the surprise primary winner.
Senator Iván Cepeda was widely expected to come out on top and advance to the second round in a stronger position, but his camp was disappointed to fall short of those expectations.
He still had almost 41% of the tally, but de la Espriella led him by almost 3 points, hitting 44%.
Analysts say the possibility of a leak is wide open. The important factor is people supporting other candidates who can get their votes. However, it is highly likely that the decisive factor will be those who did not participate at all in the first round.
“I think someone who didn’t vote in the first round but can somehow persuade undecided voters to vote in the second is good enough to become president,” said political analyst Oscar Chala.
With three weeks left until the June 21 election, the race to sweep the vote is in full swing, and the candidates have wasted no time in positioning themselves.
Immediately after the results came out, Cepeda’s camp claimed there had been irregularities in the vote, but the candidate withdrew the following day, saying it was not important.
He has also criticized the wearing of a Colombian football shirt as part of a political campaign, linking it to the far-right movement of La Espriella, and has also challenged public debates in which he has not previously participated.
“Cepeda now wants to invite the debate he has always avoided. This is a sign of desperation,” said political consultant Rubén Erazo. Latin America Report.
De la Espriella accepted the debate to be held on Tuesday, June 9, but he also called his rival a “coward” and accused his campaign of hiding behind Petro.
Despite Cepeda’s disappointing results, he ended up doing about as well as polls had predicted. It was even slightly higher. But analysts say he has had trouble persuading undecided and abstaining voters and has lacked a solid, consistent campaign.
“The failure of Cepeda’s campaign is that Cepeda himself is not a candidate. The candidate is now Petro’s president,” said political consultant Rubén Erazo, who said the election was akin to a referendum on Petro’s legacy.
He said it encompasses “the good, the bad and the ugly” of his presidency. While he expanded social programs, other policies, such as launching ambitious negotiations with armed groups, caused great controversy. People who are dissatisfied with what Petro stands for are likely to oppose Cepeda.
Despite the knockback, Erazo said this does not mean the game is over for the Senators and their Petro allies.
“Cepeda can win as long as his team changes its strategy, admits its mistakes, thinks calmly and does not focus only on claims of fraud,” he said.
The race is still very open and analysts say anything can happen and a lot will depend on where you target your political energy.
“Cepeda is likely to move closer to the centrists, and Abelardo could become more radical. The strategy Abelardo will use to win is to radicalize his discourse because he knows that Iván Cepeda will start winning centrist votes,” Chala said.
He believes Espriella will target the establishment much further to the right than traditional right-wing establishment figures such as Paloma Valencia, who once polled more than 20% of the vote but ultimately secured less than 7%.
This voter base is conservative, often masculine, and wants a hardline security strategy and greater investment in the country.
De la Espriella has been the leading candidate to capitalize on this, as well as anti-Petro sentiment, and is expected to continue to win support from some of his former base in Valencia.
“But his discourse is very anti-establishment and he does not seek support from political parties,” Chala explained.
Nonetheless, Paloma Valencia and her mentor, former President Álvaro Uribe, came out in support of de la Espriella. If those who supported her can be persuaded to move to this camp, her relevance has not yet completely diminished.
Moreover, while Cepeda took a back seat in his campaign and relied heavily on traditional strategies such as mass rallies and marches, Espriella relied heavily on creating his own image by calling himself a “tiger” while doing so.
“Everything is exaggerated and tries to be inspirational: airplanes, Italian suits from when he was a lawyer, even images of him advising controversial figures,” he said. “For example, even the beard was taken from Nayib Bukele’s work. It’s the same style.”
De la Espriella clearly has anti-establishment tendencies and aligns himself with Nayib Bukele, Javier Milei and Donald Trump. It appeals to some voters and repels others.
At this stage, both candidates are still in the race and have it all figured out.
Featured image caption: Iván Cepeda (left) and Abelardo de la Espriella (right).
Main image source: respective campaigns.
