Embry-Riddle aviation safety research puts viral fear of flying in perspective.

A new aviation safety report from Embry-Riddle shows why the fear of flying often outstrips data, especially in the age of social media.

If recent aviation headlines have made you more anxious about flying, you’re not alone.

Today, aviation accidents don’t stay local for long. Mechanical issues, engine failures, rejected takeoffs, runway diversions, or emergency calls can be clipped, posted, reshared, and context removed before the aircraft moves back to the gate. Through social media, the average traveler has become more aware of every minor aviation accident than ever before.

Although it can be helpful to know better, common flight procedures can also seem intimidating, especially to those unfamiliar with the rules and science behind commercial aviation.

For example, a go-around is a safe and routine operation. Pilots practice it, air traffic controllers expect it, and airlines plan for it. But if someone were to see the shaky cell phone video with the dramatic captions and music, it could seem like a near disaster. And once those videos end up on social media, the details often get lost.

This is the problem with aviation in the algorithmic era. Drama generates clicks. Fear spreads faster than the situation. And aviation accidents and incidents are so visible that they can give the impression that flying is suddenly becoming more dangerous.

A new report from the Boeing Aviation and Aerospace Safety Center at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a much-needed reality check.

A report titled Comparative Risk Indicators for U.S. Commercial Aviationexamines the safety of U.S. commercial airlines under Part 121 operations and compares it to other forms of transportation, recreational activities, hazards in the home, and common occupations. The main takeaway is clear. By any measure, American commercial aviation remains one of the safest activities in modern life.

“Across all measures considered, air travel consistently appears to be the safest mode of transportation,” said Robert L. Sumwalt, executive director of the Boeing Aviation and Aerospace Safety Center and former chairman of the National Transportation Safety Board.

Looking at Risk in Different Ways

One of the most important ideas in the report is that risk cannot be summarized in a single number.

Anyone who is nervous about flying probably isn’t thinking about passenger miles. Instead, they might wonder, “What are the chances of something happening on my plane?” Regulators or safety experts may examine risks per hour, per mile, per trip, or over a lifetime. These are all valid, but each has a different way of measuring risk.

That’s why the Embry-Riddle report uses multiple risk metrics, including risk per passenger mile, risk per trip or event, exposure risk per hour, annual risk, and lifetime probability of death.

Dr. Mihhail Berezovski, associate professor and director of undergraduate research at Embry-Riddle, led the report. He said the goal is to help people understand aviation safety in a clearer and more logical way.

“We want to provide accurate, thorough and extensive information so people can reasonably assess their risk,” Berezovski said. “By looking at a variety of complementary measures, we can conclude that aviation safety performance is not the result of a single assessment methodology, but rather a consistent outcome across distance, time and event-based perspectives.”

This is important because aviation accidents are incredibly rare, yet they receive a lot of attention. The report notes that people’s views are often shaped by the emotional impact of large-scale events rather than the actual risk. That is, rare accidents are so memorable that flying can feel risky.

But the data shows something different.

Commercial Aviation is Different

Using multiple years of data, the report found that U.S. commercial aviation caused approximately one fatality per 90.9 billion passenger miles during the period analyzed. It is far ahead of other modes of transport in terms of travel distance.

These are huge numbers, and they help explain why aviation remains a powerful outlier in transportation safety. By comparison, the risk of death per passenger mile is approximately nine times higher when traveling by express bus. Cars, SUVs, pickup trucks, minivans, and vans are more than 600 times more dangerous when flying the same distance. Motorcycle travel is even more dangerous, with the risk per passenger mile being over 22,000 times higher.

This does not mean that air travel is risk-free. No form of transportation can guarantee this. But it shows how advanced, regulated, and data-driven the U.S. aviation system is today.

The report also examines the risks of flying on a single airline, which may be a more intuitive way for many passengers to think about flying. On this basis, commercial aviation is once again performing exceptionally well. The report estimates that there is one death for every more than 97 million airline flights.

If you compare flying to other single event activities, the differences are clear. Skiing or snowboarding for a day is approximately 73 times more dangerous than boarding a commercial flight. Scuba diving is about 180 times more dangerous, marathon running is about 200 times more dangerous, and skydiving is more than 400 times more dangerous.

If you’ve ever worried about your flight while driving to the airport, these numbers are a good sign. Flying is usually the safest part of travel, even though it often feels the scariest.

Everyday risks are often much higher

The report also compares aviation risks to everyday risks, even risks that typically do not cause much public concern.

The chance of dying in a U.S. commercial airline accident each year is described as “very small.” The report compares these risks to risks such as falls, car accidents, drowning, heat, household injuries, and more.

For example, the annual risk of death from automobile accidents is more than 5,800 times higher than from U.S. commercial aviation accidents. The risk of falling is more than 5,600 times higher, and the risk of preventable death at home is more than 14,000 times higher.

Even very rare risks, such as being struck by lightning or bitten by a dog, are higher each year than deaths in commercial aviation accidents.

This is not to make light of aviation accidents. Every accident is serious and every loss is significant. But the report shows that the emotional impact of tragedy can cause people to misjudge the true risk.

“This report helps people place aviation risks in the broader context of their daily activities and occupations,” Berezovski said. “It’s natural to feel fear or anxiety after an accident, but personal and policy decisions should be based on trustworthy data, not fear based on a single event.”

Rare events require careful measurement

One reason it is difficult to discuss aviation safety publicly is that fatal commercial aviation accidents are currently extremely rare in the United States.

This is definitely good news. But statistically, problems also arise. Years may go by and there may be no deaths at all. In the following years, a single incident can distort the way people perceive trends. A year with no deaths does not mean that the baseline risk is literally zero. And a year of rare fatal accidents doesn’t necessarily mean the entire system is suddenly unsafe.

To do this, the Embry-Riddle report uses data aggregated over multiple years. This approach helps mitigate the instability inherent in rare events and creates a clearer picture of long-term safety performance.

This is especially important in the current media environment. One scary video can make you feel like a pattern exists even if the underlying data says otherwise. The full report is a reminder that aviation safety should be judged by disciplined analysis, not by clips circulating online that day.

That doesn’t make viral videos meaningless. Sometimes it captures serious incidents. Sometimes they raise valid questions. Sometimes they get people to pay more attention. But they are no replacement for data.

Safe Doesn’t Mean Done

One of the most important takeaways from the report is its thoughtful approach.

This report is not intended to celebrate or suggest that the work has been completed. In fact, experts say just the opposite.

Sumwalt pointed out that today’s aviation safety comes from decades of global standards, careful supervision, better technology, training, rules and lessons learned from past accidents. These improvements took time and often resulted from difficult experiences.

And these improvements must be protected.

AVGEEKERY also has it:

5 Useful Tips to Help You Fly with More Confidence

“Just because the risk is low doesn’t mean there’s no risk at all,” Sumwalt said. “The aviation community must continue to learn from every accident, incident and near miss. This analysis provides a clearer baseline against which to measure progress.”

This is the correct way to view the report. Data should reassure passengers, but not make the industry complacent. The aviation industry’s strong safety record exists because people continue to ask hard questions, investigate problems, and improve systems while never settling for “safe enough.”

Embry-Riddle President P. Barry Butler said the university’s role is to help advance these conversations in the public sphere.

“For more than 100 years, Embry-Riddle has been a leader in aviation and aerospace safety,” Butler said. “By integrating academic analysis and industry partnerships with public outreach, we are committed to advancing the national conversation about risk and providing regulators, airlines and the traveling public with the data and tools they need to continuously improve safety.”

For travelers, the point is simple but important. The fear of flying is understandable. Aviation accidents are rare, but when they do occur, they have a major impact. And in the age of social media, even routine or safely handled events can seem dramatic.

But the actual numbers tell a much more sobering story.

Measured across miles, trips, hours, years, and lifetimes, U.S. commercial aviation remains very safe. This is not without risk. There is nothing.

But compared to the risks people face every day, flying is safer than any other way humans have ever traveled.

And that’s true.

​