US President Donald Trump’s second term has been defined by the kidnapping of Venezuela’s leftist President Nicolas Maduro, the joint US-Israeli airstrikes against Iran that killed hundreds of Venezuelan Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and new threats to other leaders from Latin America and even Europe.
This policy tests alliances, legal norms, and the idea that shock measures abroad have predictable consequences at home. At its core is a message that Trump repeats in a variety of ways. “We can contact you. If you don’t do what we want, we may not be able to protect you.”
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Trump has described himself as the only American president who has “taken off the gloves,” speaking directly to foreign leaders and promising swift punishment or personal favors.
His supporters see strength and candor, while critics emphasize threats and deals aimed at domestic politics as well as foreign capital.
A doctrine built around enemies
Trump’s decision to attack Iran has been described as “the biggest foreign policy gamble of his presidency,” with analysts saying he had pivoted from “quick, limited operations like last month’s lightning strike against Venezuela” to a more long-term conflict that is already morphing into a wider regional war.
His doctrine is based on identifying enemies such as Iran, China, Russia, and North Korea, along with actors such as Venezuela, Cuba, certain Latin American leaders, drug cartels, Hezbollah, and Hamas.
Analysts at the Atlantic Council say Trump’s national security strategy is “intensifying the great power competition with China and Russia while casting Iran and North Korea as rogue regimes” and creating an organizational map of his enemies that is reflected in his rhetoric and operations.
The Foreign Policy Institute describes Trump’s strategy as a “serious transactional document,” arguing that security guarantees and pressure on adversaries are structured around what others “pay” or make concessions to the United States.
Iran and regional war spread
The Pentagon has dubbed Iran’s campaign Operation Epic Fury, and President Trump has claimed the United States “didn’t start this war, we plan to end it.” Iran’s foreign minister rejected the claim in an interview with Al Jazeera.
“The U.S. military will destroy most of Iran’s military, deny Iran a nuclear weapon, and give the Iranians the opportunity to overthrow their ruler,” Trump said. According to some media reports, he has privately claimed that Iran “will soon have missiles capable of hitting the United States,” but intelligence assessments do not support this.
Analysts say President Trump hopes the US-Israeli airstrikes will spark a popular uprising to oust Iran’s ruler. Although external air power has never directly achieved government change without ground forces. The Atlantic Council warned that an Iranian attack risks pushing Washington into a wider regional war “without a clear end result.”
If Iranian retaliation results in significant casualties of American troops, there will be strong pressure on the United States to expand Operation Epic Fury into a larger military operation, according to a briefing from the Royal United Services Institute.
Meanwhile, hawks in Washington see an opportunity. A report from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies said an attack on Iran presents “a historic opportunity to help bring down the Islamic Republic.”
President Trump told US media that the military operation could take “four weeks or less,” but the Secretary of Defense acknowledged that it could be shorter or longer depending on the response of Iran and its allies.
Days after Saturday’s Iranian airstrikes, the war has spread across the region and Israel said Tuesday it had begun a ground operation in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Iran’s retaliatory strikes have targeted U.S. assets as well as civilian infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and other Gulf countries.
This is the escalation that experts have warned about. The airstrikes, which consisted of targeted beheadings of the Iranian leadership, are now drawing in a weakened Hezbollah and even Lebanese civilians, reinforcing the perception that the United States is willing to put entire regions at risk to reach one person or prove that it can topple one regime.
Just as Maduro’s arrest in Caracas followed CIA intelligence in Venezuela, analysts say the episode reinforces similar ideas elsewhere.
‘Uneasy precedent’
The Caracas raid followed a “maximum pressure” campaign that included sanctions, criminal cases and asset seizures in a high-visibility operation. Maduro’s kidnapping gave the United States significant control over Venezuela’s vast oil reserves.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies called Maduro’s operation “a military victory without a viable endgame,” arguing that while the president’s escape was a tactical success, the structural drivers of Venezuela’s crisis remain.
A Brookings analysis warned that the strike “sets a troubling precedent for U.S.-led special forces regime change,” suggesting other Latin American leaders may see it as a potential U.S. “template” rather than a one-off.
President Gustavo Petro suggested that an intervention like Venezuela would “seem good for me”, as did Colombia, which was referred to as “sick” by Trump and warned Petro to “watch his a**”.
In January, Petro warned that Washington risked moving from “global domination” to “isolation from the world,” saying the United States was behaving like an empire that treated Latin American governments as subjects.
Killing or kidnapping leaders or public figures of other countries is a violation of international law. Experts say the expansion of President Trump’s “targeted killing” doctrine has broken down the taboo against assassinating political leaders, making reciprocity more relevant.
Protection as a transaction
Trump’s stance toward allies is less dynamic but equally blunt.
Trump once boasted to a NATO partner, “You didn’t pay, did you? You’re a delinquent. No, I’m not going to protect you. In fact, I’m going to encourage (Russia) to do whatever they want.”
The comments raised alarm in European capitals and prompted what analysts described as an effort to “anti-Trump” NATO by locking in higher defense spending and deeper political commitments.
The European Council on Foreign Relations argued that Trump had “exported MAGA to Europe”, turning NATO into a “nominal protection racket” whose security guarantees were conditional on allies’ political and financial alignment.
A White House memo declassified in 2019 remains the clearest example of how Trump’s transactional logic applies to his partners. The memo contains President Trump’s response to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s request for additional weapons.
President Trump reportedly told Zelenskiy, “We’d like you to do us a favor,” before asking him to investigate former US President Joe Biden and his son. This conversation led to Trump’s first impeachment.
Who’s next?
The strikes on Maduro, attacks on Iran, threats against Petro and pressure on NATO all together suggest who could be next. Latin American leaders have labeled drug cartels as moderate. Iran-linked groups in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon; Or the small European countries branded “rogue” by Trump.
President Trump’s advisers have urged him to focus on the domestic economy and warned that a prolonged confrontation with Iran could alienate some of his “America First” base who are skeptical of an indefinite war, according to U.S. media reports.
Trump’s supporters, meanwhile, point to increased NATO spending, the Maduro airstrikes and the Iran airstrikes as evidence that Trump “walks his talk.” Some argue that even without regime change, degrading Iran’s nuclear program would still be seen as a victory for Trump.
But critics fear the Iranian campaign could escalate into the largest U.S. military campaign since the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and some of Trump’s claims about Iran are not supported by intelligence.
Whether American power can produce sustainable results without backlash in Iran, Lebanon, Latin America, and the United States will be a key test for Trump going forward.
