As pressure on Hamas and Israel grew, hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza grew.

The outlines of the Gaza ceasefire and hostage release agreement currently being discussed between Israel and Hamas in indirect talks held in Doha have been discussed since May. So why are there renewed expectations that this will work, even after eight months of war freeze?

There have been many changes both politically and on the field.

The first is the election of Donald Trump as the next US president.

he is He threatened that “all hell” would break loose. If the hostages were not released before he takes office on January 20th.

Hamas may well have read these words as a sign that even the tenuous brakes the Biden administration has tried to use to control the Israeli government will be lifted. But it is difficult to imagine what that will mean for a territory already so devastated by 15 months of war. .

Israel is also under pressure from the incoming president to end the Gaza conflict, which risks hampering Trump’s hopes of securing a broader regional deal and his desired image as a president who ends war.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under constant pressure from a far-right coalition to continue the war.

But Trump could also be an asset in persuading allies to accept the deal and remain in government. The new US president and his pick as ambassador to Israel appear to support Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank under Israel’s far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. They said they wanted to merge..

But after his meeting with the prime minister last night, Smotrich seemed unconvinced, posting on social media that the current deal was a “disaster” for Israel’s national security and that he would not support it.

But some in Israel see Smotrich and his far-right ally, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, as a golden opportunity to consolidate their control over the West Bank, especially in the face of Trump’s return. I believe you are seeing it. The White House and they won’t follow through on their threat to quit.

The second thing that has changed is that Netanyahu’s military establishment is increasing pressure on Netanyahu.

It is widely believed that key figures have repeatedly challenged him on the diminishing military objectives of continuing the war following the killing of Hamas’ top leader and massacre in Gaza.

The deaths of 10 Israeli soldiers in the Gaza Strip last week shone a new light on the costs of war with Israel and the perennial question of whether Netanyahu’s promised “complete victory” over Hamas is achievable.

Some analysts suggest Israel should rethink its strategy because Hamas is now rebuilding faster than Israel is defeating it.

And here, too, there is a third regional shift that reflects changes in expectations. Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’From Hezbollah in Lebanon to Bashar al-Assad in Syria, the killing of Hamas leader Yahia Sinwar in Gaza.

For all these reasons, this is seen as the best opportunity in months to bridge the gap between Israel and Hamas and end the war.

What has not changed in the eight months since the last round of negotiations is the gap between them.

Central to this is the direct conflict between Hamas, which wants to end the war, and Israel, which wants to leave the door open for a resumption of the conflict for political and military reasons.

transaction, As President Joe Biden explained in May:It is divided into three phases, and a permanent ceasefire takes effect only in phase two.

Success will now depend on whether assurances can be found that could allay Hamas’ concerns that Israel will back out of the deal after the first phase of hostage release.

The question of how Israel will manage the territory it has withdrawn is also unclear at this stage.

But the diplomatic net that swept the region last week and the fact that Netanyahu sent heads of Israel’s security services to the Doha talks along with key political advisers are encouraging signs.

The same goes for Palestinian detainees coordinator Qadoura Fares’ departure for Doha.

The deal is not yet complete and negotiations have collapsed before.

This old agreement is raising new hopes, as negotiations are taking place in a new regional context under growing pressure both internally and from key allies abroad.