Travel suppliers are still predicting 2024, but geopolitical concerns are starting to impact some bookings earlier this year.
Travel agents at the 2023 USTOA Annual Conference and Marketplace in Los Angeles in early December cited terrorism as their third biggest concern for 2024, jumping from near the bottom of the list a year ago, and the Israel-Hamas war as the top travel supplier. It reflected how much it shook up the company. eyesight.
Rising cost of living and economic uncertainty ranked in the top two in the annual survey of USTOA members released at the conference. According to the survey, 94% of members reported growth in 2023, and 86% said they were confident guest bookings would increase in 2024.
Nonetheless, the survey highlighted concerns among suppliers as the impact of the war on travel extends far beyond Israel.
There has been a sharp increase in cancellations on some airlines for travel to Egypt and Jordan, two countries bordering Israel. The former shares a 7.5-mile border with the Gaza Strip.
“To be honest, the impact of the first quarter of 2024 has been very severe,” said Pamela Hoffee, president of Avalon Waterways, which offers charter Nile cruises in Egypt. “In the first quarter of 2024, almost half of our guests canceled,” she said. “There was no significant impact on the rest of the year.”
AmaWaterways said regional declines will continue until mid-2024.
“We’ve seen a pretty significant drop in bookings and we’re not seeing a lot of new bookings coming in,” Rudi Schreiner, president of AmaWaterways, said of sailings to Egypt. “There isn’t much activity after the summer of 2024. Many people have tried to get out of that date.”
Colette said there have been notable cancellations of trips to Egypt and Jordan due to the civil war.
“For close departures, cancellation rates are in the 30 to 40 percent range,” said Jeff Roy, senior vice president of revenue management, pricing and worldwide operations at Collette.
But Roy said the impact of the war was much broader, with travel bookings down overall in the last quarter of the year.
“If you look at our margin activity each week through October 7th, every year through October 7th, we are much closer to our booking curve than we were last year,” Roy said. , mentioning the date that Hamas attacked Israel. “So it’s definitely a broader slowdown.”
Melissa DaSilva, president of TTC Tour Brands, agreed, writing in a U.S. travel advisory issued in October that “there are heightened tensions in many parts of the world and the risk of terrorist attacks, protests or protests against U.S. citizens and interests.” “There is a possibility that violent acts may occur,” he warned. Greater hesitation about traveling.
“Starting around the same time, we have seen a slowdown in bookings to Europe,” DaSilva said. “And we had a good Black Friday, but I can’t say it was our best Black Friday. We’re really looking forward to January and hoping things get back to normal.”
DaSilva and other travel companies said they were seeing a decline in bookings from other destinations farther from conflict zones, including Morocco, Turkey and Greece.
Travel companies still expressed confidence that travel will be strong overall in 2024, despite the challenges ahead.
“We have a lot of activity on our website, but our conversion rates are currently much lower,” Roy said. “So it seems like people are still doing a lot of shopping. It may start to die down a little bit as we get into the first quarter, which is typically the peak booking season.”
Cruise lines have the flexibility to relocate.
Cruise companies have been able to more easily adapt to the situation because they can redeploy their ships.
“All three of our brands are globally sourced, so when there is a crisis like we see in Israel and elsewhere, our ships are on the move. This is not only a positive part of the cruise industry, but also the ability to recognize demand in real time. Speaking on the new Celebrity Ascent, Jason Liberty, CEO of Royal Caribbean Group, said:
But keeping a business out of conflict isn't always easy for advisors.
Alex Sharpe, CEO of Signature Travel Network, said the luxury cruise space was impacted in the fourth quarter by the cancellation of itineraries to Israel and Jewish customers booked to travel to Muslim countries.
But adjusting to the ships being withdrawn from Israel and the Middle East was the biggest challenge for advisers, he said.
“Relocation is always difficult, and even if you have a compelling replacement schedule, you're going to have to resell some of the space because people aren't buying it,” Sharpe said. Additionally, alternative itineraries may not command the same or higher prices.
Still, given that Israel is not a year-round cruise destination, Sharpe doesn't see a huge long-term impact.
This echoes Liberty's statement that the company has “very low exposure to that part of the world” – about 1.5% of its relocated capacity. He said overall cruise demand “has been very good and continues to be very good.”
And as Lainey Melnick, owner of the Dream Vacations location in Austin, Texas, points out, well-traveled clients are accustomed to avoiding political conflict and are more likely to switch to Asia, Australia or another big trip if they go to Israel. New Zealand.
“When people were going to the Middle East, Egypt, Turkey, Israel, it was more of a bucket list itinerary, so they wanted to replace it with a bucket list itinerary,” she said.
