Welcome to reportsky sports column Adam Bate We use a mix of data and opinion to reflect on some of the key stories from the latest Premier League matches. This week:
- Watkins’ numbers are causing concern
- Pope’s shooting halt under scrutiny
- Why Garner is now a key figure for Everton
What happened to Watkins at Villa?
Use the Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Highlights from Wolves’ match against Aston Villa in the Premier League
Given that Aston Villa were in contention for the Premier League title just a month ago, Unai Emery has admitted it is perhaps surprising that Aston Villa centre-forward Ollie Watkins is having his toughest season since joining the club almost six years ago.
Watkins had a decent chance to give Villa a first-half lead at Wolves but couldn’t get his shot home quick enough after being in goal. Emery’s underperforming side lost 2-0 to the bottom club and are now fourth in the table.
Calls to start Tammy Abraham are growing. Watkins has scored just one goal in his last 11 games. He may point to Youri Tielemans’ lack of passing, but his problems are two-fold. His level of finishing has dropped and so has his dynamism.
Over the past five seasons at Villa, Watkins’ goal tally has consistently tracked his expected goals numbers. He has scored 75 goals in the Premier League and has an expected goals against average of 75.11. During that time, they averaged 0.44 goals per 90 minutes across both metrics.
His points per 90 minutes this season, at 0.34, are his lowest since Dean Smith was replaced by Steven Gerrard and he was at the same level as Villa finished 14th. Interestingly, his expected goals are also at their lowest since that season.
Why doesn’t Watkins get the same amount of opportunities? Emery will need to work with his team, but one concern is that Watkins, now 30, may lose some of the spark that set him apart. His work intensity is essential to his game.
His top speed this season is 33.12 km/h, which is lower than last season, which also fell the season before, and also fell from his top speed of 36.10 km/h in the 2021/22 season. A steady slowdown that seems to be a trend.
With smarter moves and improved service, it doesn’t have to be a disaster. Watkins can find a way. But his struggles to find space and his lack of confidence in front of goal have drawn attention to him. Emery still supports his player.
Asked in the press conference after Wolves’ defeat how Watkins can turn things around, Emery said: “I’m working hard and I’m looking forward to it. I’m working. I’m preparing for the next game. And of course he’s going to score again.” Villa needs this sooner rather than later.
Pope’s form is a problem for Newcastle
Eddie Howe has blamed “avoidable mistakes” for Newcastle’s 3-2 loss at home to Everton, citing the conceding of one goal in particular as a key moment of the game. Howe later spoke to the press and claimed that “the second incident was particularly traumatizing for us mentally.”
There is no denying who is responsible. It was Nick Pope who fumbled Dwight McNeil’s shot into Beto’s path. According to Opta, the mistake was his third of the Premier League season. No player has made more mistakes this season than he has scored goals.
Nick Pope’s shot on Newcastle’s target map this season
What’s frustrating for the Newcastle goalkeeper is that he hasn’t made so many mistakes in any season since making his Premier League debut for Burnley in 2017. What is surprising, considering his hard-earned reputation, is the manner in which the mistake was made.
Pope’s kicking has long been considered a weakness, but his shot stopping and ball handling have always been his strengths. This was another mistake that had nothing to do with uncertainty about the ball at his feet. It’s becoming a problem.
Howe must have known there was always a trade-off with Pope. While others may have been more confident on the ball, the Newcastle goalkeeper has consistently saved more goals than expected, surpassing expected goals metrics year after year.
This season he has fallen below that mark, scoring more goals than the average goalkeeper. With Aaron Ramsdale already on the bench and fans encouraging the club to buy a new goalkeeper in the summer, it is a tricky time for a player who turns 34 next month.
Asked to elaborate on Pope specifically, Howe added over the weekend: “I think it’s difficult to comment on any player or any position. Overall, we need to do a better job of defending our goals.” But the Pope is clearly under pressure to raise his standards again.
Why Garner is a key player for Everton
Use the Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Highlights of the Premier League match between Newcastle and Everton
It was a stunning save from Jordan Pickford that ensured Everton left St James’ Park with three points on Saturday. However, it was James Garner’s performance that provided the dominant midfield display. He has been Everton’s best player this season.
Especially in the second half, Garner protected the defense by making interceptions. There were a total of six in the game. No one has ever made that much money over a Premier League weekend. No one else in the game has made more than one.
What catches the eye is the intensity of his work in the defensive zone. When it comes to high-intensity pressing in central areas of his own half, Garner is considered the better player in the league than the similarly hard-working Dominik Szoboszlai and Joao Gomes.
He is fourth in total distance in the Premier League. But Garner is more than a runner. He has been good in possession for Everton this season. He is a midfielder who not only plays cleanly, but is also often responsible for sharp passes.
Everton’s James Garner’s minutes by position in the Premier League this season
David Moyes is clearly relying on him. Speaking to the Everton manager after Garner scored a stunning goal from left-back in the Premier League opener at the club’s new stadium in August, he said: “He is a true midfielder. His versatility is very important for us.”
Fortunately, Garner is thriving as he transitions into his preferred role. There could be wider recognition if Everton move up to eighth. The England international turns 25 later this month and timing is everything. Don’t rule out a World Cup decision just yet.
