Ireland head into the weekend’s headline Autumn Nations Series against South Africa in Dublin as significant underdogs, but recent history suggests things may not be easy for the Springboks.
Rassie Erasmus’s side have been incredibly strong this month, starting the autumn with a 61-7 win over Japan at Wembley, followed by impressive wins of 32-17 and 32-14 over France and Italy respectively. They were reduced to 14 players for the at-large spell after receiving permanent red cards for both Tests.
The win over Six Nations champions France in Paris was a demonstration of the extraordinary strength and depth they came from behind to win in a game that seemed dead and buried.
South Africa achieved a stunning win over France in Paris two weeks ago despite Lood de Jager’s 38th-minute red card.
Ireland, by contrast, have had a fairly inconsistent autumn so far. After a controversial, if undercooked, early dismissal of Tadhg Beirne, they looked much more like their former selves, with a disappointing 26-13 loss to New Zealand in Chicago, a 41-10 win over Japan in Dublin and then a record 46-19 win over Australia.
It is yet to be seen whether much of the second-half surge against the Wallabies was due to the visitors’ visible fatigue – they have played 14 Tests since July – but this result boosted Ireland’s confidence more than anything else.
Mack Hansen scored a first-half hat-trick as Ireland’s first-half hat-trick in Ireland’s record win over Australia last week.
Heading into this weekend, most people will consider South Africa to be the best team in the world right now. Despite playing in far from vintage fashion to claim the Rugby Championship title last month, they lost at home to Australia, almost lost at home to the Wallabies for a second time, and also lost to the All Blacks at Eden Park.
But while doubts were raised in the Rugby Championship, the autumn showcased strength and talent.
Saturday therefore poses a huge challenge for Ireland, but both sides enter this contest with the Irish having won four of the last five Tests. In many ways, Ireland proved South Africa’s bogey side.
Ireland won in Dublin in 2017 and 2022, won the 2023 Rugby World Cup in Paris (won by South Africa) and drew the series 1-1 in Durban in 2024.
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In the last meeting between the two sides, Ireland drew the series 1-1 with a surprisingly late 2024 win over South Africa in Durban.
South Africa’s only win over the same period was a 27-20 win in Pretoria in a Test dominated by significant TMO intervention, a week before Ireland’s win on South African soil.
Ireland have had that number since Erasmus acrimoniously left his contract with Irish side Munster a year and a half early to take charge of South Africa in 2017.
Victories in 2022 and 2023 came as part of a run of 17 Test victories that made Ireland number one in the world and favorites to win the World Cup in France, but Andy Farrell’s side are currently looking far removed from their previous levels and have had to fight off suggestions they are a team in decline.
There’s no better way to prove they don’t than to take the scalp of the current world number one Boks again, but that will require their best performance for some time.
At the same time, if history is anything to go by, the Springboks will not have it easy in the Irish capital this weekend either. Perfectly prepared.
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South Africa’s only win over Ireland in the last five meetings came in Pretoria in 2024.
‘Ireland’s fitness needs to improve massively to have any chance’
Ireland defense coach Simon Easterby was under no illusions about the challenges ahead when speaking to the media this week.
“We will definitely take positives from the (Australia) game, but we also understand that we need to get better every week. We have done that in the three-match series so far and we will need to do that again this weekend against South Africa,” Easterby said.
“They understand that they have strengths that other teams don’t have and that they have to find some weaknesses as well, so we have to be better at what we do, with or without the ball.
“That includes our physicality, including our ability to stop 22 team attempts to score, which we didn’t do well enough at the weekend. “So it’s international rugby and physicality should be a given regardless of who you play.
Ireland’s resounding win over Australia was a morale booster, but the Springboks’ task is a completely different matter.
“I think there are other things to consider in this series: going to Chicago, taking the time, dealing with that loss, building the resilience of the squad.
“You can’t always be perfect, and you can’t always live your life your own way.
“There has been a lot of open and honest dialogue within the group and there is no better challenge than having South Africa come to Aviva at the weekend and see if we can actually put into practice many of the things we have said we are trying to improve.”
For Ireland, influential Ulster center Stuart McCloskey will be sidelined with a groin injury, but flanker Josh van der Flier and center Garry Ringrose should return due to hamstring problems.
“It was a good weekend in terms of getting what we needed to do in terms of rehabilitation and a good start to the week,” Easterby said.
“I feel really good and the players trained well today.”
