Ceasefire in Gaza: What can we expect?

grey placeholderReuters, Palestinian refugees walking along a road in the Gaza Strip (file photo)Reuters

Almost the entire population of Gaza has become a refugee due to the war.

Israel and Hamas are believed to be close to agreeing on a deal that would halt the war in Gaza and see the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.

The BBC’s American partner, CBS, said an agreement in principle had been reached from Arab, American and Israeli officials and that, if all went well, Israel and Hamas would reach a final conclusion this week.

This will be the most dramatic breakthrough in the 15-month war that began when the Palestinian militant group Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023.

What could a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas include?

It is expected that the ceasefire agreement will mean an agreement to stop the war taking place in the Gaza Strip.

Exchanges of hostages and prisoners are also expected.

Hamas took 251 hostages when it attacked Israel in October 2023. Israel still holds 94 prisoners, although it believes only 60 are still alive.

Israel is expected to release about 1,000 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for rescuing the hostages.

How does a ceasefire work?

The ceasefire is expected to take place in three phases once the agreement is announced.

Details are still being ironed out. Subject to change until contract is completed.

first step

A Palestinian official told the BBC that in the first phase, 34 hostages, expected to be civilians, would be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners.

Three hostages are released immediately and the remaining exchanges take place over six weeks.

At this stage, Israeli forces will begin withdrawing from populated areas of the Gaza Strip.

Palestinian officials said detailed negotiations on phases 2 and 3 would begin on the 16th, the day of the ceasefire.

second step

In the second phase, the remaining hostages (soldiers and reservists) were released and the number of Palestinian prisoners increased.

Of the 1,000 Palestinian prisoners Israel has agreed to release, about 190 are serving sentences of more than 15 years. An Israeli official told the BBC that those found guilty of murder would not be released to the occupied West Bank.

At this stage, Israel will allow refugees currently south of Gaza to return north.

Most of Gaza’s 2.3 million people have been forced to flee their homes due to the civil war.

third step

The third and final phase involves the reconstruction of Gaza, which could take years.

Israeli officials said that during the ceasefire, Israeli forces would remain in a buffer zone, or security zone, inside the Gaza Strip.

grey placeholderAn Israeli woman is holding an Israeli hostage poster while looking at the Gaza Strip through the fence (file photo)Reuters

Hamas still holds dozens of hostages taken during an attack on Israel in October 2023.

What are the unanswered questions about the deal?

Reaching this point took months of arduous indirect negotiations. Especially since Israel and Hamas completely distrust each other.

Hamas wanted the war to end completely before releasing the hostages, something Israel could not accept.

A ceasefire effectively pauses war while its terms are fulfilled.

However, it is unclear whether this means the war is completely over.

One of Israel’s main war goals was to destroy Hamas’s military and ability to govern. Despite Israel’s severe damage to it, Hamas still retains some capacity to operate and reorganize.

It is also unclear which hostages are alive or dead, and whether Hamas knows the whereabouts of all of its missing hostages.

Hamas has demanded the release of some prisoners, which Israel has said it will not release. It is presumed that this includes people involved in the October 7 terror attacks.

It is also unknown whether Israel will agree to withdraw from the buffer zone by a certain date or remain indefinitely.

Any ceasefire is likely to be fragile.

A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas that had halted previous fighting faltered in skirmishes and eventually collapsed.

The timeline and complexity of this ceasefire could turn even a small incident into a major threat.

What happened on October 7, 2023, and what happened in Gaza?

Hundreds of Hamas-led gunmen have launched unprecedented attacks in southern Israel, breaching border barriers and targeting communities, police stations and military bases.

About 1,200 people were killed and more than 250 hostages were taken to Gaza. Hamas has also fired thousands of rockets at Israel.

Israel responded with a massive military campaign, first by air and then by land. Israel then attacked targets across Gaza by land, sea, and air, while Hamas attacked Israel with rockets.

Israel’s offensive has devastated the Gaza Strip, creating severe food shortages and struggling to get aid to those most in need. Israeli attacks have killed more than 46,600 people, most of them civilians, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry.