But new research released today, Out A group of leading climate scientists have highlighted how close the world is to a long-term breach of the 1.5C mark.
They estimate that starting in early 2024, the world could emit about 200 billion tonnes more carbon dioxide (CO2) to increase its chances of keeping warming to 1.5C to 50/50. This is down from 500 billion tonnes at the beginning of 2020.
At current emissions rates, this “carbon budget” could be exhausted by 2029. However, due to the warming impact of greenhouse gases other than CO2, the world will probably be several years away from achieving the long-term 1.5C target.
There is uncertainty about exactly how the climate system will respond to these factors and whether countries will urgently reduce emissions.
“We as a society have some control over this,” says lead author Professor Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Center for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds.
Despite the grim picture, some progress has been made in recent years, including rapid growth in renewable wind and solar power.
Greenhouse gas emissions are also showing signs of stagnation but are still at record highs.
They must decline rapidly if the global goals are to have any chance of being met, and every inch of warming worsens climate impacts.
“Every degree counts. Every tenth counts,” says WMO Deputy Director-General Ko Barrett.
“The difference between 1.5C and 2C could mean dire consequences (…) for coastal communities, fragile ecosystems and the biodiversity they contain, glaciers and frozen regions of the world.”
