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Diving Briefs:
- The University of Michigan said in July that consumer sentiment has risen from five months in five months, as the consumer sentiment decreased from 5%to 4.4%.
- At the same time, household expectations for personal finances last month have decreased, and emotions were found in monthly surveys in both December level and historical average.
- “Consumers will not be able to regain their trust in the economy unless they are convinced that inflation will deteriorate if the trade policy is stabilized for the near future.” Joanne HSU, Director of Consumer Survey of University,,, Said in the statement.
Dive Insights:
The recent stability of consumer sentiment is consistent with the mixed economic signal, and whether the federal reserve officials’ opinions on the outlook for jobs and inflation will be expanded and the loan costs will be reduced this month.
For two months, retail sales rose 0.6% in June. Of the 13 retail categories, 10 retail categories recorded sales profits, including automobiles, food and beverage and building materials. The Census Bureau reported on Thursday.
The unemployment rate was eased from 4.2%in May last month to 4.1%. US salaries have expanded to 147,000Healthy clip. But the state and local governments, not the private sectors, accounted for about half of their hiring.
also, Consumer price index has increased to 2.7%per year. In June, the Labor Statistics Bureau said it compared 2.4%in June.
Imported products lead the price profit and indicate that the tariff requires a 1 degree fuel inflation. BLS said that the price of clothing, furniture and home appliances increased 0.4%, 1%and 1.9%, respectively.
The outlook for inflation, employment and economic growth gives a big hint about whether the inflation due to tariffs will last several months or next year.
In recent weeks, some Fed officials have warned that import prices can continue. They preferred to withheld the main interest rate decrease until it increased the clarity of price pressure.
“Inflation pressure due to trade policy is rising and an additional price increase is expected at the end of the year.” Adriana Kugler Governor said on Thursday.
“As the unemployment rate is still low due to the low level of unemployment, the unemployment rate is still low, so I think it is appropriate to have the current level of policy rate for a while, given the stability of our mission as the expectation of short -range inflation and product inflation increases due to the rise of tariffs. ”
Import tariffs will raise inflation to about 1 percentage points during the first part of the next year. New York President John Williams said on Wednesday..
Williams said in a speech, “The Federal Fund Rate, from 4.25%to 4.5%,” “properly limited,” said Williams said.
Governor Christopher Waller does not agree. On Thursday, he urged fellow policymakers to reduce the federal funds by 0.25 percentage points at this month’s meeting.
“Targets are one -off at price level and do not cause inflation beyond temporary surge.” He said in a speech.
“The labor market looks good on the surface, but if you explain the anticipated data amendment, the private sector’s salary growth has little speed, and the other data suggests that the risk of falling in the labor market has increased.
“You should not wait until the labor market worsens before the policy rate is reduced due to the risk of increasing risk of inflation and inflation restrictions near the target,” he said.
Over time, the central bank aims to cut the benchmark ratio to 3%, which is a “neutral” level, believing that the Fed will not be slow or promoted.
