Although the details of President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to impose stiff tariffs on imports remain vague, federal data leaves no doubt that foreign food is playing an increasingly important role in feeding the American people.
Imports accounted for more than 17% of total U.S. food and beverage consumption in 2022, according to U.S. Census Bureau data released by the USDA Economic Research Service. This is an increase from 13.5% in 2013. Over the past 25 years, the value of imported produce has increased fivefold, and imports of consumer-oriented produce have grown particularly rapidly as shoppers come to expect seasonal items year-round.
The total value of food imported into the U.S. in 2023 will be just $190 billion, up nearly three-quarters over the past decade, the USDA reported last month.
The United States is particularly dependent on agricultural products produced overseas. Imports accounted for about 60% of fresh fruit availability in 2021, up from about 50% in 2013, according to the USDA. Meanwhile, foreign-sourced vegetables accounted for nearly 40% of the U.S. food supply in 2021, up from about 25% in 2013, according to the agency.
The country’s strong demand for international goods is adding more urgency to the grocery industry, as President Trump’s promise to impose new fees on imports will almost certainly result in higher prices for shoppers, according to economists.
America’s dependence on imported food has been increasing for decades.
US food imports by year
CNBC reported that President Trump discussed imposing tariffs of at least 10% on all imports and 60% or higher on Chinese products. Tariffs serve as a source of revenue for the federal government and are controlled by the President. The president could use tariffs to boost U.S. producers by making imports more expensive.
Michael Snipes, a professor of economics at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee, said tariffs may not be aimed at shoppers, but they ultimately raise prices for consumers because retailers typically pass on the additional costs.
“Tariffs are taxes, plain and simple. (It’s) a tax on imported goods, but not much different than a sales tax,” Snipes said. “So this is going to increase the prices of everything that is imported, and that includes food.”
David Ortega, a professor and food economist at Michigan State University, agreed that tariffs would likely increase costs for shoppers, noting that many of the products American shoppers rely on, such as coffee, are not grown in the United States. Ortega said the tariffs would also put pressure on food prices by raising the cost of imported items used by food companies, such as manufacturing equipment, packaging and fertilizers.
Ortega said that while President Trump talked about lowering food prices during the campaign, the president-elect’s tariff plan is unlikely to achieve that goal. Food inflation has fallen sharply since hitting a multi-decade high in mid-2022, but food prices remain a top concern for shoppers.
“This is an example of a policy that is almost certain to backfire,” he said of the tariff proposal. “I don’t think there is any situation where food prices will fall due to the tariffs being discussed now.”
Arun Sundaram, senior vice president at CFRA Research, said grocery stores are unlikely to be hit as hard by the tariffs as other types of retailers, especially those that rely more on products manufactured overseas, such as dollar stores.
“We don’t really know the scope of these tariffs, but we think in general the grocery industry will be less affected than other industries,” Sundaram said.
Sundaram noted that grocers may need to find strategies to lower the prices of items made overseas by selling smaller packages to offset the higher costs they may incur.
“Tariffs will have an inflationary impact on the economy, leading to higher prices. The biggest question is how companies can find other ways to lower prices,” Sundaram said.
