“This is how we elevate our country,” said Daniel Noboa of Ecuador, which signed a trade deal with the United States last month.
Novoa, fast approaching a year since being re-elected, has gone on a trade deal offensive to show that Ecuador’s internal armed conflict is not absorbing his focus. The United States on Tuesday also announced it had launched a joint military operation with Ecuador to combat drug trafficking in the country.
On Monday, Ecuador’s delegation signed a $3 billion deal with the United Arab Emirates. Last January, Ecuador became the first country to sign an agreement on sustainable investment with the European Union.
Joselo Andrade Rada, Director of the Ecuadorian Institute of Political Economy, said: Latin America Report Noboa’s focus on international trade deals is gradually opening up Ecuador’s economy to foreign investment, signaling “the beginning of Ecuador’s economic recovery.”
Novoa’s Big Plan
While horrific gang-related killings and street violence dominate the headlines, Novoa’s trade deals are an attempt to clean up his country’s image abroad.
“Countries have the potential to move forward if they show signs of change and improve awareness, including political stability and promoting a growing economy that is more integrated into the world,” Andrade adds.
But the trade deal can only affect the Andean country’s finances so far. Novoa promised massive economic progress during his re-election campaign.
He promised that young people would have wider access to university, employment and career progression. He promised more financial support for young families and a restructuring of Ecuador’s creaking health system.
To boost the economy, Noboa promised stronger investments in oil exploration, mining and nuclear power. As the anniversary of his re-election approaches, many of these promises remain unfulfilled.
lack
The president’s critics point out his shortcomings in areas such as his health care system, opportunities for young people and his energy strategy.
In recent weeks, images of a health system in crisis have appeared on the front pages of Ecuadorian newspapers, with hospitals underequipped and understaffed due to a funding shortfall of more than 100 percent. More than 3,500 newly qualified doctors are working without a fixed income.
Sergio Ruiz, president of ThinkTank Ecuador, describes Noboa’s commitment to young people as a “short-term solution” that will “drain public finances.” Ruiz says government-backed work programs, such as the one announced Feb. 26 that promised 160,000 jobs for people under 29, repeatedly fail because of short-term contracts.
There, young people dissatisfied with informal work and short-term formal employment are easily tempted by criminal gangs with the promise of more attractive incomes and job security that he offers.
“The government is not considering crime prevention by providing young men and students with alternatives. They are not providing the education, sports, culture and employment opportunities that would prevent young people from being tempted by gangs,” Ruiz said.
Construction of Ecuador’s first reactor has stalled since the establishment of an organization to implement a new nuclear strategy last December. Andrade believes that “Ecuador is very far from achieving a nuclear power industry because of the countless difficulties it faces when trying to do something so destructive.” Instead, Andrade believes Noboa should focus on oil exploration, which he describes as the country’s “main source of stability, growth and foreign investment.”
Reversing stalled progress in these policy areas will be “both a product and a consequence” of addressing the economy’s structural weaknesses, Andrade says. This is a huge challenge that cannot be solved through international trade deals alone.
“We need labor reform, pension reform, reducing the size of the country and spending. We need financial reform so that Ecuador can be fully integrated into the global financial system,” Andrade said.
Armed conflict dominates
Despite stronger macroeconomic indicators, Ruiz said positive economic changes “are not felt in people’s daily lives.” Indeed, the economy has been consistently relegated to priority in public opinion polls, replaced by internal armed conflict, security and crime.
ThinkTank describes 2025 as the most violent year in Ecuador’s history, with more than 9,000 violent deaths recorded. “As long as people feel they have been victims of violence, extortion, kidnapping, etc., they will be reluctant to say they feel better under Novoa,” Ruiz says.
On Monday, Novoa’s government ordered a two-week curfew in four provinces and extended the state of emergency in nine provinces. He announced that the armed conflict was transitioning to the “next phase”, which would include greater involvement from neighboring countries and increased police activity. Ecuador’s interior minister told people to “stay at home. We are at war.”
Late Tuesday, U.S. Southern Command announced it had begun a military operation with Ecuadorian troops inside the country.
Tackling organized crime is a key focus for the government and a clear, organized narrative about gangs wins Noboa’s support. Besides security, Andrade says the lack of focus and accounting on the economy is “the most important problem facing the government.”
“It’s not clear where the government’s efforts are headed or what our country’s North Star is.”
Signing trade deals and shaking hands with world leaders may make Noboa’s Instagram feed look flashy, but the focus on real economic improvement is overlooked as the president’s attention is diverted by the escalating violence.
Featured Image: Ecuadorian President Daniel Novoa and Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Khaled bin Mohammed Al Nahia before signing the trade agreement.
Image credit: Daniel Noboa via Instagram
