The World Cup has finally arrived. Is this the year of Britain?
Based on 10,000 simulations and taking into account a wide range of data points, Opta’s supercomputer has Thomas Tuchel’s side third favorites, with a 10.9% chance of lifting the trophy.
European champions Spain were considered favorites to win with a 15.9% success rate, while France came in second with 13.2%. Holders Argentina, Portugal, Brazil and Germany round out the top seven. Scotland is expected to advance to at least the round of 32, but the probability is only 0.3%.
So is it a fair calculation to give England a 10.9% chance of winning the tournament for the first time since 1966? And how do their chances actually compare to Spain or France?
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Who takes the hardest path?
One factor to consider is each team’s path to the finals.
If the tournament goes as predicted by the Opta supercomputer, England will top Group L ahead of Croatia, Ghana and Panama. Senegal before facing his co-host in the round of 32. Mexico In the round of 16.
So far so good. But it has become much more difficult for Tuchel’s men since then as they have won five titles. brazil Holder in the quarterfinals Argentina Then in the semifinals spain For the final, Opta predicted a loss to the tournament favorite.
How does the route compare to your other favorite routes?
On the other side of the lottery spain They are expected to meet their next opponent after taking first place in Group H, which includes Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde. Austria In the round of 32 Netherlands In the round of 16 Belgium on the quarter and france In the semifinals before the finals ukThey are expected to win.
second favorite franceis expected to top the difficult group ahead of Norway, Senegal and Iraq. Opta’s supercomputer says they will face it. sweden, Colombia and germany before defeat spain In the last 4 times.
Of the three knockout routes, England’s is considered the toughest. Their opponents’ average FIFA ranking is 8th, with Spain’s average ranking being 8.8 and France’s ranking being 15.8.
Who has the best quality?
One thing these three favorites have in common is a high level of depth. They also benefit from the concentration of players playing in the most competitive leagues.
England actually topped the average Opta Power rankings for their players’ clubs, ahead of France in second place. Spain, the favorite, came in fourth behind Germany.
England’s presence at the top of the list is explained by the fact that 20 of their 26 players play in the Premier League, which Opta rates as the strongest league in the world.
Transfer value is another big indicator of a player’s quality, and France come out on top in that respect. According to transfer marketTheir team is worth a whopping £1.33bn.
England are the second most valuable team in the tournament at £1.14 billion, while Spain are the third most valuable at £1.1 billion. If so, there is a big gap with Portugal, which has the 4th highest team value. transfer market£889m.
France has three of the most valuable players in the tournament in forwards Kylian Mbappe, Michael Olise and Djire Doué. Spain’s most valuable asset is Lamine Yamal, but Pedri is also in the top ten. The only England player in the top 10 is Jude Bellingham.
England and France have star players including Harry Kane, who scored 61 goals for Bayern Munich last season, and his club team-mate Olise, who continued his excellent domestic form with a hat-trick against Northern Ireland. Meanwhile, Spain’s starting player Yamal has not been able to play since April due to injury.
Luis de la Fuente is hoping he will return to his best but the uncertainty surrounding his status is a potential problem.
Where is the right age?
England, Spain and France have all selected relatively young squads.
Spain’s average age is 26.2, making them one of the youngest squads in the tournament, while England and France are not far behind at 26.6. In contrast, Brazil and Argentina have selected significantly older squads, at 28.8 and 28.7 respectively.
England, Spain and France will hope their youthful energy will help them cope with the hot and humid conditions of the tournament. Meanwhile, history shows that World Cup winning teams are usually young teams.
As you can see in the graphic below, all but four of the 14 winners of the competition since the 1970 World Cup have had starting line-ups with an average age of less than 28.
Of course, experience is also important. Has Spain balanced too much on youth? Since 1970, only two teams have won the World Cup with an average starting lineup age of less than 26.2: France in 2018 and Argentina in 1978.
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Travel disadvantages in the UK?
Think about Curacao.
The smallest country ever to qualify for a World Cup is competing in a group that already includes Germany, Ecuador and Ivory Coast, but will have to travel a whopping 10,123km to compete.
England will also have to travel extensively during the group stage, playing games in Boston, New York and Dallas, all away from their Kansas City base. That means the total distance will be 8,948km, the fourth highest of all competing countries in the tournament.
France, by contrast, will benefit from relatively less travel of just 1,518km, with matches taking place on the US east coast, including New York, Philadelphia and Boston, which could aid recovery and increase freshness compared to England.
Spain also got off to an easy start compared to England, with the European champions scheduled to cover 5,464km in the group stage.
Will the conditions suit the South American side?
Opta rates Spain, France and England as favorites for the tournament, but it is worth noting that historically European countries have not performed well at tournaments held in the Americas.
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Lionel Messi was pictured with the Argentina national team arriving at their base in Kansas.
In fact, among the eight World Cups held on the American continent, the only European champion is Germany, which won the 2014 World Cup in Brazil.
The remaining seven tournaments were won by South American teams, in part because they were better adapted to the conditions. So could that factor give Brazil or Argentina the edge? Or could a team like England follow Germany’s example and challenge history?
Verdict: Tough task for England
England undoubtedly have one of the best teams in the tournament, but if they are to go the distance they will have to overcome numerous obstacles, including a potentially difficult route through the knockouts, a grueling travel schedule and battling unfamiliar weather conditions.
