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Diving overview:
- Prices for home-cooked meals are expected to rise 2.5% in 2026, but the pace of growth is expected to be below the 20-year average, according to forecasts released Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Economic Research Service.
- Of the 15 food price outlooks surveyed, prices for sugar and snacks, beef and veal and non-alcoholic beverages are expected to increase faster than other home food categories. Eggs are the only item whose prices are expected to fall this year.
- The outlook follows a government report showing the annual food inflation rate eased to 2.1% in January after rising the previous month.
Dive Insights:
USDA forecasts show that food prices will rise overall in 2026, but the rate of increase will be lower than the 2.6% average recorded over the past 20 years.
The agency predicts that prices for the seven food categories it looks at in its Food Price Outlook, based on Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index data, will rise faster than historical averages this year. The USDA forecast that prices in seven other categories will rise at lower-than-average rates.
According to the report, egg prices are expected to fall 27.4% this year.
Categories where the USDA expects prices to rise faster than historical averages include beef and veal. The FDA predicts prices for these types of meat will rise 5.5% in 2026, well below the 15% annual inflation rate recorded for beef and veal in December 2025.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts that sugar and snack prices, which are rising faster than overall household food inflation, will rise 6.7% this year. This figure also exceeds the 20-year average for the category.
Non-alcoholic beverage prices are likely to rise 5.2% in 2026, higher than the 20-year average for the category, driven in part by coffee prices.
Categories that will see prices rise more slowly this year include fresh vegetables, which will increase 1.4 percent, the USDA predicts. Fresh fruit prices will likely rise by a few percent compared to historical averages.
The cost of food eaten at home is likely to rise more slowly than historical averages this year, while the cost of eating out is likely to increase faster, the USDA said. The organization forecast that the price of food sold at home will rise 3.7% in 2026, exceeding the average increase of 3.5% posted over the past 20 years.
