About 9.1 million people live in Switzerland. This is too many numbers for many Swiss people. On Sunday, the country is due to vote on whether to take steps to limit population growth to 10 million.
The results could have profound implications for the Swiss economy and the makeup of the country for decades to come.
If voters approve this proposition, it could reshape a rapidly aging nation that relies heavily on talented foreign workers. Business leaders warn there could be a serious labor shortage over the next 15 years, when more than half of Swiss workers are scheduled to retire.
The Swiss People’s Party, the right-wing party that proposed the cap, predicts it will help preserve the country’s linguistic traditions and agricultural roots, while relieving traffic congestion and alleviating high housing costs.
The Swiss governing council, comprised of seven members, including two People’s Party representatives, officially opposed the bill. We turned to the Swiss consulting firm Demografik to predict how population limits would change the country. The company modeled a scenario where Switzerland’s population would reach 10 million in 15 years and the government would have to take drastic measures to bring the population back down.
The company found that these measures could have serious implications for Swiss society and economy, and for Switzerland’s relations with its European neighbors. The bill’s sponsors rejected these findings, arguing that most immigrants aren’t actually filling in-demand professional jobs.
The three effects predicted by the study are:
Stop Most Immigration
Migration, not birth rates, is driving population growth in Switzerland, and migration is the target of this plan.
Almost a third of Swiss residents were born abroad. The restrictions will prevent around 1.2 million people from arriving in Switzerland by 2075, the study predicts.
Historical trends suggest that most of the people banned from moving to Switzerland will be other Europeans. On the other hand, asylum seekers from the Middle East, Africa or elsewhere have faced a backlash in many European countries. This is the nature of Swiss migration. They mainly come from neighboring countries such as Italy and Germany.
Some residents complain that their way of life is being threatened by the relocation, for example by replacing the sounds of Swiss German in the town square with the “high German” spoken in Germany. And the Swiss People’s Party complained that Muslim immigrants threatened “our Western values,” even though new arrivals from Muslim-majority countries outnumber those from other parts of Europe.
Switzerland currently has an agreement with the European Union that allows free movement between Switzerland and its neighboring countries. The cap could force the deal to end if the population exceeds 10 million, which in turn could jeopardize other agreements with the EU.
Makes the aging population even older
The study found that the 10 million cap would likely have a major impact on social care programs by further increasing the proportion of elderly residents.
Immigration has made Switzerland proportionately younger. Switzerland’s fertility rate is below the European average, and the native-born population is rapidly reaching retirement age. Most new arrivals are in their working prime. If migration stops, there will be less working-age population to generate economic growth and tax revenue.
Last year, for the first time, Switzerland had more residents over 65 than under 20. The study concluded that the cap would further exacerbate this dynamic. It warned that the changes could bring painful changes to the pension system and make everything more expensive for the country as a result.
It produces talent in important parts of the economy.
Missing migrants could leave a gaping hole in the Swiss workforce, especially in border areas and business groups, the study authors warn.
Switzerland relies heavily on foreign workers in key sectors that require advanced training, such as pharmaceuticals and information technology. The loss of brain power in these sectors could slow Switzerland’s innovative edge that has long fueled its economy.
Many jobs, such as those in hospitals and hotels, will be difficult to automate or replace with artificial intelligence. Some sectors with large immigrant populations, particularly health care, are already struggling with labor shortages.
“If you exclude well-trained people, you’re going to have problems filling certain positions,” said Stephanie Baylor, a political scientist at the University of Basel. “All those German doctors and so on. If they stop coming, you’re going to be in huge trouble.”
That gap could leave waves of the country’s retirees in a difficult situation. Fewer workers may be able to start their own jobs, and fewer workers will be able to provide the health care they increasingly need as they and the nation age.
“It will make an already serious situation even more serious,” said Manuel Buchmann, lead author of the Demografik study.
