The United States has increased its troops in the Middle East as President Trump pledged to soon end the war with Iran. More than 5,000 Marines, paratroopers and special forces have arrived in the area in recent days, raising the possibility of a ground invasion.
President Trump last week threatened to invade Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub, and “obliterate” its facilities unless Iran allows shipping to resume through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has essentially been shut down since it was attacked by the United States and Israel a month ago.
The U.S. landing force, which experts say will most likely be part of a ground operation, would have to travel about 500 miles into the Persian Gulf to reach Kharg Island. “It would be very dangerous,” said Mark F. Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a retired Marine Corps colonel. “So I think opening the strait may come first.”
U.S. officials said the president was also considering whether to seize islands in and near the strait to open up the waterway that normally carries most of the world’s oil and gas.
Iran, which has military outposts on several islands as well as its coastline, can quickly cover narrow shipping lanes with drones, anti-ship missiles and fast attack speedboats.
Given Iran’s firepower, the United States would need to seize the entire island, including the islands of Qeshm, Rarak, Abu Musa and Tunb, to open the strait, said Farjin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute. “They should take them all,” he said.
The United States has deployed 2,000 paratroopers as well as special operations forces to the region. Dr Nadimi said that if they landed on the island, they could dismantle a network of tunnels and underground missile bases “that are inaccessible even with bunker buster bombs”.
Commanders must decide whether to destroy the facility and withdraw, or to hold the island for a long period of time to secure the strait. They could also provide leverage for the United States in negotiations with Iran.
But to stay longer, they will need heavily equipped Marines and air defenses to protect them from Iranian drones, missiles and rockets along the coastline. Dr Nadimi said this would be a “high-risk, high-mortality undertaking”.
Ground operations alone cannot guarantee that ships will return to the Channel in meaningful numbers.
“You have to reassure mariners, you have to convince shipping companies and insurance companies that it’s safe enough to sail,” said Andreas Krieg, senior lecturer at King’s College London’s School of Security Studies.
Even if one or more islands in or near the strait were captured, Kharg Island would have significant strategic value to President Trump.
90% of Iran’s oil is exported from the island, and a major US attack on Iran in March did not halt oil shipments. Satellite images showed tankers continued to fill the island’s export terminals in the days following the strike.
Experts say the U.S. seizure of Kharg Island would place a serious strain on Iran’s economy. “This is the Achilles heel of the regime’s oil export infrastructure,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
However, attempts to land American troops on the island may be risky due to its hilly terrain and military presence. The flammable oil stored there poses a threat in itself.
Experts warn that Iran could adopt a scorched-earth policy of destroying the island’s oil facilities instead of allowing U.S. forces to seize them. And there are political risks for the Trump administration.
If the Marines captured the island but failed to force Iran’s surrender, the final withdrawal could look like a defeat. And if they try to seize any islands, Iran will likely try to turn it into a war of attrition.
“What they want is to maximize American casualties, because that creates an image that will change public opinion in the United States,” Mr. Krieg said.
