Flight bookings across the Middle East plummeted in the first three weeks of the war between Israel and Hamas, according to a Forward Keys analysis.
International bookings also fell globally following the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7.
“This war is a catastrophic and heartbreaking human tragedy that we all see every day on our TV screens,” Oliver Ponti, vice president of insights at Forward Keys, said in prepared remarks. “This has inevitably discouraged people from traveling to the region, but has also undermined consumer confidence in traveling elsewhere. Global air travel in the fourth quarter, the last quarter of the year, was at 2019 levels, according to bookings as of October 6. “It is 95%, but as of October 27, the forecast has dropped by 7 percentage points to 88%.”
As expected, Forward Keys analysis shows a sharp decline in travel to Israel. In the three weeks prior to October 7, domestic bookings were down 23% compared to 2019. Over the next three weeks, it decreased by 178%. These figures also include cancellations that deplete existing reservation inventory, which can result in a drop in reservations of 100% or more.
Other Middle Eastern countries also saw a sharp decline in reservations as the war began. Over the next three weeks, reservations in Lebanon, where the terrorist group Hezbollah has traded rocket attacks with Israel, fell by 45 percentage points compared to 2019 levels. The decline rates in Jordan and Egypt, which border Israel, were 54 percentage points and 35 percentage points, respectively.
In Saudi Arabia, bookings increased 75% in the three weeks before October 7 compared to 2019, but in the following three weeks they plummeted 67 percentage points compared to 2019.
Overall, using 2019 standards, Middle East bookings fell 26 percentage points during that period, Forward Keys said.
Meanwhile, outbound bookings from other parts of the world also declined, but at a lower rate. Excluding the Middle East, the Americas saw the largest decline, with outbound bookings down 10 points compared to 2019 baseline.
Globally, international bookings fell 15% in 2019 in the three weeks before October 7. That number jumped to 20% over the next three weeks, according to Forward Keys.
