It is reported that the Trump administration is close to announcing an economic agreement with Cuba. to USA Today.
Sources with knowledge of the administration’s plans told the U.S. daily that the deal would ease travel restrictions for Americans to the island, allow the current leadership (including current presidents Raul Castro and Miguel Diaz-Canel) a political exit strategy (and allow them to remain on the island), and could include agreements on “(Cuban) ports, energy and tourism.”
Following the military operation to oust Cuba’s ally and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from power, the Trump administration has waged its biggest campaign of economic and political pressure on Cuba, halting foreign oil imports to the island and declaring its government an “unique and extraordinary threat” to the United States.
Trump’s policy simply worsens existing economic and political U.S. sanctions against the island. The United States has maintained an economic embargo against Cuba since 1962 and considers it a state sponsor of terrorism.
The prospect of an economic deal between Havana and Washington has long been a possibility. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has previously suggested that the United States could ease pressure on Cuba if the government introduces reforms to liberalize the economy.
There were also reports that Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) agents were negotiating in Mexico with Colonel Alejandro Castro Espin, son of Raul Castro and nephew of Cuban revolutionary leader Fidel Castro, about a transition for the island that would bring economic rather than political change.
According to ABC, the proposed transition includes allowing U.S. companies to do business in key sectors of the Cuban economy, including energy, tourism, banking and telecommunications. In return, the United States would lift an economic embargo on the island that has existed for more than 60 years.
The nature of the impending economic negotiations appears to be similar to that of the Mexican negotiations reported so far.
Although there has been no official confirmation of these specific negotiations, President Trump and the Diaz-Canel administration appear to have been in conversation in some form for at least several weeks.
Image source: National Post via X
Dr. Robert Burrell, senior fellow at the Global and National Security Institute, conflict expert at the University of South Florida, and U.S. military veteran, said: Latin America Report About the various possibilities for a solution between the United States and Cuba.
“I do not expect American military intervention in Cuba. A free and democratic Cuba has little to offer the United States economic benefit, and I believe the Trump administration will not consider American blood and treasure worth it,” Burrell argued.
Instead, the conflict expert suggested, “the last Business Roundtable he (President Trump) had to support Venezuelan oil production could serve as a model for similar efforts with Cuba.”
At one particular roundtable attended by more than a dozen oil executives and media, Trump attempted to leverage the Maduro operation and the resulting U.S. political influence in Venezuela to persuade oil giants to invest in the South American country.
Although Maduro’s former vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, remains in power, the United States now exerts enormous influence over Venezuela’s economy through control of all bank accounts holding royalty, tax and dividend payments from Venezuela’s oil production.
The negotiating approach of preferential access to the economy of a former enemy while enacting limited political change could be replicated by the Trump administration in Cuba.
Featured Image: Members of Cubans4Trump, a grassroots coalition of Cuban Americans supporting Donald Trump, celebrate the first inauguration of 2017.
Image source: Voice of America via picryl
patent: Creative Commons License
