Caracas, Venezuela — Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado said she would return to Venezuela after leaving the country in December to attend the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize ceremony in Oslo, Norway.
Machado, who vocally supported U.S. military strikes on Venezuela ahead of the Jan. 3 operation that captured President Nicolas Maduro, was later sidelined by the Trump administration for supporting Maduro’s Vice President Delcy Rodriguez.
As Machado’s return to Venezuela looks increasingly likely, her supporters are concerned about what role she will play in the country’s political transition.
Machado remained hidden inside Venezuela for nearly a year before disappearing one December night in a speedboat with the help of a non-profit organization staffed by former U.S. soldiers.
Analyst with whom we spoke Latin America Report If she returns and no attempt is made on her life, it could be a clear signal that Rodriguez’s government is willing to allow political participation in the country, he said.
Journalist and political researcher Alejandro Armas Díaz believes Machado’s return would be a huge step forward for the country if it goes smoothly.
“We are talking about the leader of the majority opposition party. On the other hand, it would be an equally big setback if she returned home and faced reprisals,” he said. Latin America Report.
Alejandra Martínez Cánchica, Latin America director at the Freedom and Development Foundation, historian and political analyst, agrees. She believes Machado’s return is a litmus test to show whether Venezuela is truly on the path to transition.
she said Latin America Report The politician’s safe return, he said, would be “conclusive proof that Venezuela is indeed on the path to a democratic transition.”
Armas said U.S. pressure may force the Venezuelan government to create the right conditions for her return.
“In Venezuela, we have seen changes that were unimaginable until recently,” Armas said. “The root of these changes is pressure from the United States.” “Will Washington push for Machado’s return without incident? We don’t know. Maybe not. They may think it’s better to leave it for later, when the country is more stable.”
The United States has established a three-step plan for Venezuela. The goal is stability and economic recovery before political transition.
“Given that Machado has hinted that her return is imminent, we will find out sooner or later whether she will actually do so. Without a clear guarantee, it is difficult to believe that she will do so,” Armas added. “Otherwise, you may announce something you cannot do and cause disappointment among your supporters,” he said.
Martinez sees this as an ideal moment for the opposition leader’s comeback.
“Since at least mid- or late January this year, we have been seeing Venezuela’s political leaders and activists taking to the streets to engage in politics. Many have been in hiding, many have been imprisoned, and they are now protected under amnesty laws,” she said, referring to a law that frees political prisoners but has also been criticized for being exclusive.
Read more: Military families criticize Venezuela’s new amnesty law for being exclusionary
Maria Corina Machado’s leadership will be strengthened
Experts agree that one of the inevitable impacts of Machado’s return will be greater appreciation from her base.
Martínez said María Corina “still favors the majority of the population and continues to have the highest voting intentions. So the fact that she can come to Venezuela and participate in politics on the ground will undoubtedly reshape the balance of power and Venezuela’s political map.”
The analyst cited a poll by Gold Glove Consulting, which estimated that the Venezuelan opposition leader would have a 67% mathematical lead over interim President Rodrigues if the election were held in the coming months.
She also said Machado’s return could help her win back her political base, where she won 92% of the vote in the 2023 primary, and helped her candidate Edmundo González win a disputed 2024 election after he was sidelined by Maduro, according to a voter tally released by the opposition.
“From January to February 2023, the political landscape in Venezuela was completely bleak, at least for the opposition. Morale was greatly reduced and people were demobilized. Nevertheless, from the beginning of 2023, Maria Corina promoted a movement that became an unstoppable force within Venezuelan society until a year and a half later, in July 2024,” he added.
Returning from exile will also help strengthen her image among voters, Armas said.
“Many people are under the impression that (the exiles) are living a comfortable life while the Venezuelan public continues to suffer. In reality, that is not necessarily the case, but again, that impression remains. So it is in Machado’s best interest to return to her country as soon as possible. Whether she can do that is another question,” he said.
Featured image: Maria Corina Machado and former presidential candidate Edmundo González in 2024.
Image credit: Edmundo González Via X.
