On New Year’s Day, Russian gas supplies through Ukraine were cut off.
Kiev is calling it a “historic” day as it refused to extend its shipping contract with Russia’s Gazprom, cutting off cash flows to fund a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
But in neighboring Moldova, the move risks triggering a crisis.
Cool off in Transnistria
In Transnistria, a separatist region in eastern Moldova loyal to Moscow, the year began with heating only supplied to hospitals and key infrastructure, not to homes.
“I was up until 2am checking to see if the hot water was on. Now it’s off and the radiator is barely warm,” Dmitry told the BBC by phone from his flat.
“There is still gas, but the pressure is very low. It’s just gas left in the pipes.”
“It’s the same everywhere.”
Transnistria was separated from the rest of Moldova by a brief war following the collapse of the Soviet Union. There are still Russian troops on the land and the economy is entirely dependent on Russian gas, for which the Tiraspol authorities do not pay a penny.
“They just have a file of how much they owe each month,” explains Jakub Pieńkowski of the Polish Institute of International Relations (PSIM). “But Russia is not interested in asking for this money.”
Suddenly the lifeline through Ukraine was cut.
In some Transnistrian cities, authorities are setting up “heating points” and there are hotlines to help find firewood. It is recommended that families gather in one room for warmth and use blankets to seal cracks in windows and doors.
There will be sunshine on New Year’s Day, but overnight temperatures are expected to drop below 0 degrees.
“It’s cold inside the apartment now,” said local resident Dmitry. “And we don’t know what frost we’re going to get in January.”
blackout threat
For now, electricity continues to flow.
But Transnistria’s main power plant in Kurchugan already uses coal as fuel instead of Russian gas, and authorities say it only has enough fuel for 50 days.
This means a problem for the rest of Moldova, which gets 80% of its electricity from Kurchugan.
The Chisinau government said it had enough gas to heat the city until spring and would switch to buying electricity from Europe. However, this means that costs will increase significantly.
A state of emergency was declared last month, and businesses and citizens were told to reduce consumption as the country braced for power outages.
The sudden disruption of gas supplies through Ukraine also affects Slovakia and Hungary.
Both have governments aligned with Moscow, who have been much slower than other countries in the EU to cut off Russian fuel and end funding for Russian wars. Paying more for replacement supplies will strain your budget.
But Moldova is poorer and more unstable. A prolonged crisis could have serious economic and political consequences.
Maybe that’s what Moscow wants.
Russia can supply power to its allies in Transnistria through Turkey, albeit at a higher cost, which means supplying power to all of Moldova.
Instead, Gazprom claims it cut off supplies because Chisinau’s debt is nearly $700 million. The Moldovan government said an international audit estimated the actual amount to be about $9 million, most of which had been repaid.
Are you into politics?
“We are treating this not as an energy crisis but as a security crisis provoked by Russia to destabilize Moldova economically and socially,” Olga Rosca, a foreign policy adviser to the Moldovan president, told the BBC.
“This is clearly a materialization operation aimed at creating demands for the return of pro-Russian forces to power ahead of the 2025 parliamentary elections.”
Relations between Moldova and Moscow are tense.
The country, once part of the Soviet Union, began negotiations to join the European Union and further distanced itself from Russia after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
President Maia Sandu was re-elected last year despite a massive campaign against her in Moscow.
It didn’t stop.
Before she took office, Russia’s external SVR intelligence agency issued a bizarre statement falsely claiming she was planning to retake Transnistria by force to restore energy supplies. The report described the president as ‘frantic’ and ’emotionally unstable’.
Analyst Jakub Pieńkowski agrees that the Kremlin is taking advantage of Kiev’s decision to ban Russian gas shipments.
“That is what makes it a political and social issue in Moldova,” he argues. “Electricity rates have already increased six-fold in three years, and people are angry.”
As the humanitarian situation in Transnistria worsens, pressure on Chisinau will increase. But Tiraspol is refusing all help, even the generators.
Olga Rosca believes that “they will create a story where Chisinau brings Transnistria to its knees.”
And even if Tiraspol decides to buy gas from elsewhere, the hit to its economy could be disastrous.
“Prices here will skyrocket, including heating and food costs, but pensions here are too low and there are no jobs.” Dmitry told me from Benderry, in the buffer zone on the edge of Transnistria.
He says people there are rarely “obsessed” with things the way they are. Now life elsewhere in Moldova will also become more difficult.
Jakub Pieńkowski predicts: “Russia can wait for the elections, and then the party that does not support the EU will win.”
“Because Maia Sandu can talk about joining the EU, but what good is that if people don’t have money to buy electricity or gas?”
“This is Russia’s goal.”
