Painful questions NATO and EU will face if Trump takes Greenland

On Tuesday, a so-called coalition of mainly European leaders met with U.S. President Donald Trump’s envoy in Paris to try to make further progress on a sustainable peace deal in Ukraine.

As Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed his plan to end the war with Russia was “90 percent accomplished,” no one there wanted to continue putting Americans at risk.

But in that majestic, glittering meeting of Paris there was a giant Greenland-shaped elephant.

Greenland is the world’s largest island, six times the size of Germany. Although located at the North Pole, it is an autonomous territory of Denmark.

And Donald Trump claims he wants it. It is necessary for U.S. national security.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Federiksen attended the Paris conference. She is a key EU ally among many leaders in attendance. Britain’s main NATO ally.

None of these countries want to risk antagonizing Donald Trump, but as the political temperature rises in Washington and Copenhagen, the six major European powers, including Britain, France and Germany, issued a joint statement on the sidelines of the Ukraine talks.

They said security in the Arctic must be achieved jointly with NATO allies, including the United States, and that issues concerning Denmark and Greenland will be decided only by Denmark and Greenland.

But was that really enough to contain Trump’s ambitions?

The answer came within hours. no.

The White House issued its own statement saying it was “discussing a variety of options” to acquire Greenland. These options were all one-sided, including the purchase of the island.

Press Secretary Caroline Levitt broke the chilling news to European leaders, saying in a White House statement: “Using U.S. troops is always an option for the commander-in-chief.”

This is not the first time Trump has announced his intention to take Greenland, but many in Europe have privately scoffed at the idea, especially during his first term as president.

But no one is smiling anymore after the Trump administration’s controversial military intervention in Venezuela last weekend.

The Danish Prime Minister said Trump’s intentions on Greenland must be taken seriously and leaders left the Ukraine meeting very worried indeed.

Consider the irony here. A number of European countries and other leaders, including NATO and the European Union, are trying to engage the Trump administration to defend the future sovereignty of a European country (Ukraine) against the aggressive territorial ambitions of an outside power (Russia) while actively threatening the sovereignty of another European country (Denmark), shortly after the United States military raided sovereign Venezuela and detained its president.

What makes the problem even more stark is that both Denmark and the United States are members of the transatlantic alliance NATO.

According to Copenhagen, they are very close allies. or not.

Denmark said that if the Trump administration unilaterally occupied Greenland, it would spell the end of the transatlantic defense alliance that Europe has relied on for security since World War II.

Some might point out that Trump has never been a big fan of NATO. To say the least.

Copenhagen attempted to intervene with the Trump administration in Greenland.

Under a bilateral agreement, the United States already has a military base in Greenland, which was established in the early days of the Cold War. The number of people there has dwindled from about 10,000 at the height of the Cold War to about 200, and the United States has long been accused of turning a blind eye to Arctic security.

Denmark recently pledged to invest $4 billion in Greenland’s defense, including boats, drones and aircraft.

But the Trump administration has shown no interest in talking to the Danes.

On Sunday, Trump claimed that Greenland “is so strategic right now that Greenland is covered everywhere with Russian and Chinese ships. We need Greenland from a national security standpoint, and Denmark is not going to be able to do that.”

Denmark refutes the last statement.

“This whole situation has once again highlighted Europe’s fundamental weakness compared to Trump,” one EU official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told me.

Denmark’s Nordic neighbors immediately came to the verbal defense following Trump’s weekend remarks about Greenland, but there was initially deafening silence from Europe’s so-called Big Three – London, Paris and Berlin.

Ultimately, British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said Monday that only Denmark and Greenland can decide the island’s future. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has said something similar in the past.

Emmanuel Macron visited Greenland in December as a show of solidarity with Copenhagen. And today a joint statement was issued.

However, direct criticism of the United States was noticeably absent from this statement.

“If all 27 EU member states and NATO ally Britain had issued a joint statement supporting Danish sovereignty, it would have sent a strong message to Washington,” said Camille Grande, head of the EU Foreign Affairs Council. He served as NATO Deputy Secretary-General for Defense Investment from 2016 to 2022.

However, only six of Denmark’s European allies issued a joint statement.

And this is the crux of the problem. Trump’s outspokenness, some calling his bullying tactics, has left European leaders extremely uneasy.

Rather than stand up individually or together to confront the President of the United States and risk facing the potential consequences, they have chosen to attempt to manage the President of the United States, often in an attempt to protect the relationship between the two countries.

In the new world of great power politics we now live in, where the United States and China dominate along with Russia and India, Europe appears at best to sit on the sidelines and risk being trampled.

Every year I cover EU politics, I pledge that the EU will play a bigger role on the world stage, but it looks decidedly weak when it comes to Trump.

Late last year, the European Union failed to fulfill its promise to financially support Ukraine using Russian state assets frozen in the EU. They found the money in other ways, but critics say the bloc very publicly missed sending a potentially strong message to both Moscow and the Trump administration.

And in one area where the EU has long boasted internationally – as a huge trading power – it has once again decided to bow to Trump.

When he imposed a 15% tariff on EU products last year, the EU swallowed its pride and promised not to retaliate, insiders say. Because they feared losing the support of the United States on which the continent depends for its security and defense.

And now we have Greenland and Denmark. EU countries are deeply divided in their attitudes toward the Trump administration and therefore may go to some extent to stick their necks out for Copenhagen.

As a result, Juliane Smith, who was the US ambassador to NATO until Trump was re-elected president, told me that the situation “not only risks breaking the EU, but could also become an existential dilemma for NATO.”

“Europe should take President Trump and his team seriously when they talk about “acquiring” Greenland.” Julian Smith told me.

“That means doing more than urging restraint. Europe’s major powers can begin contingency planning and consider how they can make the most of international conferences such as the upcoming Munich Security Conference and Davos, which will be attended by senior U.S. officials, and also consider bold, innovative ideas such as a new defense treaty.”

The NATO Treaty does not distinguish between attacks by external states against allies or attacks by other NATO allies, but it is understood that Article 5 of the alliance (all provisions for all and one for one) does not apply when one NATO country attacks another.

Consider, for example, the dispute between member states Türkiye and Greece over Cyprus. The worst incident of violence was the Turkish invasion in 1974. NATO did not intervene, but its most powerful member, the United States, could help mediate.

Going back to geography, Denmark is one of NATO’s smaller allies but is very active. The United States is the largest and most powerful member of NATO. until now.

The deep-rooted tensions in Europe are evident right now.

European powers could have issued a joint statement highlighting NATO as a forum to discuss Arctic security and asserting that only Denmark and Greenland can decide the island’s future. But how far will Britain, France, Germany and other countries actually go to ensure that sovereignty?

“Nobody is going to fight militarily with the United States over the future of Greenland,” the White House deputy chief of staff told CNN on Monday.

ECFR’s Camille Grande reiterated tensions over the Greenland issue. “Because there is a need for Europeans to reduce their security dependence on the United States and speak with one voice.”

Trump promised all NATO allies last summer (except Spain) to significantly increase their own defense spending.

However, Europe still relies heavily on the United States in many areas, including intelligence collection, command and control, and aviation capabilities. Washington also knows this.

NATO insiders say they can’t help but ponder what would happen if the United States were to enter Greenland militarily, even as European allies are currently meeting behind closed doors.

It might have to be that way.

Top photo credit: NurPhoto/Getty Images

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