Our football betting experts, Jones Knows, provide insight into the Premier League weekend and advise Manchester City to win the thrilling Manchester derby.
Manchester United v Manchester City, Saturday 12.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Watch the Manchester derby live on Saturday 17 January at 12.30pm.
Pep Guardiola is enjoying playing with his shiny new toy.
Antonie Semenyo has been performing well for Manchester City and his anytime goalscoring angle in this Manchester derby on August 15 via Sky Bet is truly attractive.
What really stood out about the win at Newcastle was how different Semenyo made Manchester City’s attack look. City have excellence, control and structure, but what they don’t always have is raw attacking directness. Semenyo gets it by the bucketload.
Defenders are obsessed with Erling Haaland. This will only benefit Semenyo. It creates a little space and Semenyo is smart and aggressive enough to exploit it. Whether he’s starting on the left, drifting in from the right, or ghosting around Haaland, he doesn’t wait for danger and constantly sniffs it out.
And for whatever reason, the opportunity seemed open to him against Manchester United and he relished it. Semenyo has scored in the last three games against United, including the 4-4 draw at Old Trafford earlier this season.
Score Prediction: 1-3 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Antonie Semenyo to score (15/8 with Sky Bet)
Chelsea v Brentford, Saturday 3pm – Play Super 6!
Brentford’s performance at Stamford Bridge no longer feels like a mismatch. In fact, it’s becoming a game they’re quietly looking forward to. They have lost just once in their last eight visits to west London and that says everything about this team’s mentality. There is no fear.
And now they are totally humming.
Brentford are on their best unbeaten run of the Premier League season. They are undefeated in six games and have won four of their last five games. And since December 14, no Premier League team has picked up more points than the Bees (14). It’s 11/10 with Sky Bet for two chances.
Score Prediction: 1-1
Leeds v Fulham, Saturday 3pm
Leeds are a great watch and their games are quite confusing by design. They play on the edge, get in your face, question opponents, but they also bring pressure. In their last 18 matches their games are averaging 3.5 goals and they have kept just one clean sheet in that period.
Fulham arrive as the perfect dance partners, with over 2.5 goals against them looking very generous at 11/10 via Sky Bet.
They have scored in their last 12 games across all competitions, showing a level of attacking consistency that speaks well. Marco Silva’s side don’t need much dominance to find the net either. They are sharp in transition, clever in the half-spaces and dangerous in wide areas.
Score Prediction: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Over 2.5 goals (11/10 with Sky Bet)
Liverpool v Burnley, Saturday 3pm – Play Super 6!
Arne Slot’s Liverpool are starting to look like a serious team again.
There has been a big change in the defensive structure. Slot clearly prioritized control without the ball, avoiding leaving Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate exposed and providing adequate protection in front of them, ultimately reducing the number of foolish mistakes that cost them goals.
In their last eight games Liverpool have conceded just five goals. It’s not smoke or mirrors. The expected goals on data backs this up nicely at 0.8 per 90 minutes, pointing to a side that limits their quality chances rather than relying on last-ditch defense or goalkeeping heroics.
Combining Liverpool’s improved defensive process with Burnley’s limited attacking threat could see Liverpool secure a draw with astute play at 10/11 via Sky Bet.
Score Prediction: 2-0
Sunderland v Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm – Play Super 6!
Crystal Palace arrived after being knocked out of the FA Cup, losing to non-league Macclesfield in the third round. The instinctive reaction is to expect a violent reaction. But history strongly opposes such an idea.
Looking at the last 13 Premier League teams to have been eliminated by League One or lower opposition at that stage, their record has not been good: 3 wins, 4 draws, 6 losses. And even those three wins were by minimal one-goal margins. There is no evidence of a rebound surge. Rather, the hangover persists.
Sunderland remain unbeaten at home this season. The energy, structure and crowds of matches make the Stadium of Light a very unpleasant place to visit. They are good prices for the October 11 draw with Sky Bet.
Score Prediction: 1-0
Tottenham v West Ham, Saturday 3pm
Jarrod Bowen and Crysencio Summerville are West Ham’s live wires. Stopping them would greatly hinder West Ham.
The problem for the visitors is that they are facing a Tottenham side specifically designed to rob them of that weapon.
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In the Transfer Talk podcast, The Athletic’s Dan Kilpatrick explains why questions are being raised about the squad Thomas Frank is assembling, despite Conor Gallagher being a good option for Tottenham Hotspur.
One of the defining characteristics of Thomas Frank’s Spurs is how well they manage moments in transition. They don’t allow the game to stretch, quickly regain form and suffocate counter-attacks before they even start. This is backed up by numbers.
Throughout the season, the Spurs have allowed the second-fewest fast breaks in the league (11). And crucially, they did not give up a single goal on a fast break.
There is a very strong angle under Frank, with 9 of his 10 wins as Spurs manager being undefeated. If Tottenham wins, they don’t just win, they close the door. The Sky Bet lands again at 2/1.
Score Prediction: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Tottenham draw (2/1 with Sky Bet)
Nottingham Forest v Arsenal, Saturday 5.30pm – Play Super 6!
Gabriel Magalhaes is quietly becoming a foul magnet. Not because he is theatrical, but because of how Arsenal use him. He intervenes aggressively in the build-up, passing the ball into pressure and engaging in constant physical duels at set-pieces. This combination naturally led to contact and the referees were happy to blow the whistle.
The latest figures highlight this trend. Gabriel has been fouled at least once in nine of his last 10 starts, averaging 1.53 fouls per 90 minutes. That’s a healthy baseline for a centre-back and enough to get him a 2+ foul line in Sky Bet’s 11/4 game type. Here he is competing against Igor Jesus.
The Forest striker is aggressive and raw, still learning when to step in and when to back off. He committed 22 fouls in his most recent game.
Score Prediction: 0-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Gabriel gets fouled +2 (11/4 with Sky Bet)
Wolves v Newcastle, Sunday 2pm live on Sky Sports – Play Super 6!
Wolves have quietly become a very difficult team to score against. A noticeable trend in their recent performance is their defensive improvement, which is backed up by some serious underlying numbers.
Only Arsenal can make Wolves’ expected goals per 90 better compared to the process of 0.99 in their last six games. It’s an elite area. Wolves have faced Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United during that period. So the sample size is small, but the quality of the opposition gives real credibility to the numbers.
We know Newcastle is a very different proposition to St James’ Park. And the most notable thing is the aggressive decline. In their last 17 Premier League away games, they have scored more than 1.5 goals only three times.
On average, Newcastle only score 1.2 goals per away game and struggle to generate sustained pressure or high-quality chances on their travels. 6/5 with Sky Bet looking to be the winners with under 1.5 goals scored in away games again.
Score Prediction: 2-1
Aston Villa v Everton, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – Play Super 6!
David Moyes’ record away from home against top-class opposition is terrible.
Since his days at West Ham, his record in away games against Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City stands at 20 losses in 21 games. What a cruel comeback.
These games also tend to follow the same script. By sitting deep, you limit damage, slow the tempo, and hope to stay in the contest for as long as possible. Now, this game is technically not in that bracket. But at what point do you start calling Aston Villa an elite home team?
Villa Park has become a fortress. They have won their last 11 home games, including clean wins over Arsenal and Manchester City. The intensity, structure and belief that Unai Emery has created is close to the best in the league.
But Moyes’ away games are rarely chaotic. Since returning to Everton, only two of his 20 away appearances have gone over 3.5 goals, averaging just 1.8 goals per 90 minutes. That’s why a Villa win and a combination of under 3.5 goals makes sense at 11/10 at Sky Bet.
Score Prediction: 2-0
Brighton v Bournemouth, Monday 8pm live on Sky Sports
Bournemouth’s away games this season have been truly dismal. They are averaging 4.8 goals per away game. No, that’s not a typo. Yes, almost 5 goals per game.
But the market is completely aligned on this goal, which naturally pushes us into the anytime goal scorer angle.
And who better target than Kaoru Mitoma? The Japanese winger is starting to look like the sparkle of his past and a nightmare for defenders. His movement, explosiveness at the back and instinct for goal are all in evidence again, as evidenced by his goal against Manchester City.
History gives us greater confidence. Mitoma has scored five goals in his last six games against Bournemouth. The psychological advantage over the opposing team is not taken into account in Sky Bet’s 5/2 price.
Score Prediction: 3-2 | BET ON JONES KNOWS: Karou Mitoma scores (5/2 with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows’ Best Bet…
- Antonie Semenyo and Karou Mitoma both score one-run doubles (9/1 with Sky Bet)
- Leeds vs Fulham & Aston Villa to win with a one-point double over 2.5 goals and under 3.5 goals (7/2 with Sky Bet)
- Draw with 1 point for Tottenham (2/1 at Sky Bet)
- 1 point +2 fouls to win for Gabriel (11/4 at Sky Bet)
