Our football betting experts, Jones Knows, said 9 out of 10 results from last weekend’s matches were correct. He’s back to offer insight…
Manchester United v Newcastle, Boxing Day 8pm, live on Sky Sports
The Manchester United vs Newcastle match on Boxing Day will be broadcast live on Sky Sports. Kickoff is at 8pm.
With the absence of key forwards likely to impact Manchester United’s performance, United are looking to Matheus Cunha to provide a creative and shooting threat.
A repeatable pattern in betting is something to respect, and Cunha’s shooting profile is just that. Since the start of last season, no player has been on target from outside the box more often than Cunha, 31, which suggests this is by design and not change. What’s more encouraging is that four of his shots from outside the box in his last two games highlight his current confidence and freedom in his role.
On the road, Eddie Howe’s side have conceded 1.21 shots from outside the box per game in their last 30 away league games, the third-most of any Premier League side. This is a defensive concession profile that invites exactly the type of effort that Cunha specializes in.
Evens with Sky Bet does not claim a goal if one or more Cunha shots are on target from outside the box, but only a neat connection that harasses the goalkeeper from outside the area.
Score Prediction: 1-2
Nottingham Forest v Manchester City, Saturday 12.30pm
Manchester City are becoming their players’ friends again, increasing their confidence. Pep Guardiola’s players, who have the scent of Arsenal in their nostrils, have seven wins left.
Guardiola is also doing things differently. Once renowned for his rotation, he has used fewer players in his starting XI (12) than any other Premier League manager over the last eight games. This is giving us some great trends to develop across the prop market for us to follow, including the foul drawing ability of Mathues Nunes for City. He has committed nine fouls from opposition in his last five starts and tops the charts as City’s most fouled player this season. He draws two or more fouls again at 6/4 with Sky Bet.
Score Prediction: 0-2
Taking the opposition shot line against Arsenal at the Emirates is not usually a betting theory to explore. But under Fabian Herzeler, Brighton are not a normal team when it comes to visiting elite teams and the numbers prove it.
When we take a closer look at Brighton’s data against best-in-class teams in the Premier League, the picture becomes very interesting for those of us who like to bet on shots when the price is right.
In 11 games against Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City under Lee, Brighton averaged 15.8 shots per game and expected goals per game at 1.78. This is an absurd result. This is all about creating a title contender opportunity for a side that doesn’t even smell anywhere near a title challenge.
The market is behind this curve. You can register 10 or more shots on Evens with Sky Bet at Brighton.
Score Prediction: 2-1
It’s a game where it’s hard to escape the numbers. Let’s hope they don’t lie.
In Brentford’s last 11 league games at Gtech we are seeing a staggering 3.9 goals per game. This immediately tells us two things. They are playing front foot football and the back foot is tight.
Now add Bournemouth into the equation and the noise gets louder. Their away games are averaging an impressive 4.5 goals per game, which is an elite level of volatility. Andoni Iraola did his best to apply aggressive pressure on the road, which created chances at one end but left them horribly exposed at the other.
If both teams combine to score and score over 2.5 goals, they are a 4/5 shot to strike with Sky Bet.
Score Prediction: 2-2
This is the part of the season where experiences quietly tip the balance. The schedule is thick and fast, preparation time is limited and matches often hinge on game management rather than tactical perfection.
This is where David Moyes stands out.
In 58 Premier League matches played between December 23 and January 8, his side recorded a winning percentage of 45%, an impressive comeback during one of the most difficult periods. This points to a manager who understands how to simplify the game when the legs get tired and the focus shifts from style to substance.
In a game likely to be decided by a good margin, back-up experience, especially on the touchline, feels like a reasonable angle for Evens to suggest for an away win.
Score Prediction: 0-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Everton to Win (Evens with Sky Bet)
Long periods without the ball are inevitable when playing at Anfield. And when a team spends most of the game chasing shadows, the foul count usually starts to rise.
This is the angle that makes Wolves interesting in a very difficult betting heat. Since Rob Edwards took over, they have averaged 16.8 fouls per 90 minutes. This is the most of any Premier League team. Teams that are expected to struggle tend to foul more out of frustration rather than malice. And there is plenty of that in the Wolves camp.
Wolves, who have the most fouls in the first half at 13/8 with Sky Bet, are worth a look.
Score Prediction: 3-0
Since Nuno Espirito Santo took over at West Ham, their performances have been very distinct. We are looking at an average of exactly 3 goals per game, but a more telling indicator is the expected goals figure, which is much higher at 3.3 goals per game.
This means that these games aren’t bloated by odd finishes or sending offs, but rather opportunities are actually flowing at both ends.
Nuno’s West Ham are much more direct and very transition-heavy. They attack quickly, move forward and are willing to take risks. That’s what the home fans will demand in this important and winnable home game. The Hammers aren’t reliable enough to turn the tables outright at 8/5 with Sky Bet, but they are priced at over 2.5 goals in Evens and the odds of both teams scoring a combo.
Score Prediction: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS’ TOP BET: Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS (Evens with Sky Bet)
Chelsea v Aston Villa, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – Play SUPER 6 to win £1M!
Chelsea vs Aston Villa Live!
Aston Villa’s underlying numbers suggest some turbulence ahead. But context is important and this trip to Chelsea is one point where Villa will find it very difficult to ignore, despite a data warning of 3/1 from Sky Bet suggesting an 11th successive win.
Chelsea still struggle to control the game for long periods of time, especially against teams that try to attack space quickly. That’s where Morgan Rogers comes to the party. Villa’s star doesn’t need volume, he needs moments, and Chelsea provide plenty of that.
A victory for Villa with Rogers on the scoresheet can’t be too much to ask for. He has made three of his last seven starts. This means the Sky Bet ratio is 8/1 making it a worthwhile play.
Score Prediction: 1-2
Sunderland v Leeds, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Sunderland vs Leeds United Live!
There are certain grounds that simply cannot be ignored. The Stadium of Light has become a place where structure, energy and belief do the heavy lifting, and these qualities tend to carry over very well throughout the season. They are currently unbeaten in eight Premier League home games, with five wins and three draws, and this consistency speaks volumes about the kind of team they are.
With key players sitting out AFCON, it is tempting to downgrade Sunderland. But this is an aspect built on collective understanding and tactical clarity. As seen in the outstanding performance at Brighton, the structure is still maintained even if a few pieces are removed.
Meanwhile, Leeds have struggled badly on the road. Six defeats in eight away games show a team that has yet to find a way to control play outside of their familiar surroundings.
The market is ignoring the impact of the Stadium of Light and as a result we are backing Sunderland for a draw at 10/11 via Sky Bet.
Score Prediction: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Sunderland draw (10/11, Sky Bet)
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham, Sunday 4:30 PM, live broadcast on Sky Sports
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham Hotspur Live!
Crystal Palace’s defense is creaking. They have now conceded 10 goals in their last four games in all competitions. Before that, he had only scored eight goals in total in his last 12 games. The squad has been pushed to its limits and results are now suffering in their own right.
Tottenham had an eight-day break after the last match. This is the longest gap between games this season. Thomas Frank is a process-oriented, hands-on coach who needs training time to implement his ideas. We couldn’t afford that this season. And while Frank’s side have been one of the most helpless in the Premier League this season from an attacking perspective, there is quality in that forward line that gives Palace’s defense at their disposal more gifts than usual. Sky Bet’s away win on November 5 was truly incredible.
