US President Donald Trump said a regime change in Cuba would be “just a matter of time” once the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran ends.
He also suggested change could come to Cuba in the next two weeks, telling POLITICO that “Cuba is going to fall apart.”
His comments come amid increasing U.S. pressure on the island, including sanctions and a near-total oil embargo. But it remains unclear how the change will occur and what it will entail.
“We cut off all the oil and money coming from Venezuela, which is our only source, and they want a deal,” Trump told POLITICO on Thursday.
President Trump previously announced that diplomatic dialogue between the two countries is increasing. But the American leader doesn’t seem as interested in the fate of Cuba as he is in the fate of Iran, saying, “How long have you been hearing about Cuba, Cuba, Cuba for 50 years? And that, to me, is one of the little things.”
The Trump administration’s approach to Cuba has so far consisted of a campaign of economic pressure, which has seen the US government impose tariffs on all countries supplying oil to Cuba and order the seizure of oil tankers bound for Cuba.
The impact was enormous. The UN warned that the blockade was affecting healthcare, food distribution and water services. 84% of Cuba’s amniotic fluid system relies on electricity, as do certain key treatments for thousands of pregnant women and cancer patients.
So far, the Trump administration has refrained from taking military action, like the one used to free dictator Nicolas Maduro from Venezuela earlier this year. Nevertheless, a group of Cubans living in the United States, known as members of the anti-Cuban regime People’s Self-Defense Forces (ADP), attempted an armed ‘invasion’ into the island last week. A gunfight with the Cuban Coast Guard left four ADP members wounded, six dead, and a Cuban Coast Guard commander wounded.
ADP promotes clandestine armed activities against the Havana government. The U.S. government has denied involvement in the invasion, but ADP’s actions symbolize growing tensions between the Cuban government and U.S.-based Cuban rebels. Various Cuban-American opposition groups signed a ‘liberation agreement’ on Monday, a document outlining plans for regime change.
Nonetheless, U.S. government support for military operations is possible. As the recent US attacks on Iran and the arrest of Cuban ally Maduro show, the current US administration is willing to use military force against foreign enemies when it believes diplomacy is ineffective.
In this context, military options may be considered if diplomatic negotiations with the Cuban government fail.
Featured image: American soldiers stand in front of a Cubana plane heading to Cuba. The plane was carrying Cuban prisoners captured by U.S. forces during Operation Urgent Fury, the U.S. invasion of Grenada.
Image source: Unknown via NARA and DVIDS public domain archives
patent: Creative Commons License
