US President Donald Trump will turn his focus to the Middle East on Monday when he meets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Florida for talks expected to address the Gaza Strip and a variety of other pressing issues.
Every decision made can have a potentially significant impact on the questions that will determine the future of the region.
The United States has been Israel’s strongest military and political backer during the two-year war in Gaza, and many now see the meeting as a test of the leaders’ relationships and how aligned they are on key topics.
This will be the sixth meeting since President Trump returned 11 months ago.
Among the expected discussion points are the future of relations with Syria’s new government, Iran’s rearmament and Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon.
Perhaps most importantly, we will discuss progress on the Gaza ceasefire agreement, in which the Israeli government has taken several different positions than the U.S. government.
The talks are scheduled to take place as storms continue to batter the Gaza Strip. In Gaza, hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees live in basic tents with little protection from the cold and flooding.
On Monday, the Hamas-run health ministry reported the death of a two-month-old baby due to extreme cold, bringing the total number of deaths due to winter weather since December 10 to three, while a further 17 people were killed as buildings damaged by the storm collapsed.
The United Nations and numerous aid groups have accused Israel of failing to meet its ceasefire obligations by continuing to restrict full access to basic supplies and equipment. Israel said it was meeting its obligations to facilitate increased aid deliveries.
The Trump administration wants to see the ceasefire advance to a second phase in January. A Palestinian technocratic government would be established, international security forces would be deployed, Hamas would be disarmed, Israeli troops would withdraw, and reconstruction of the devastated territory would begin.
Critics have suggested that Netanyahu does not want to engage seriously with questions about the political future of Palestine and may instead seek to delay progress on a ceasefire, saying he would push for full disarmament of Hamas before Israeli troops withdraw from Gaza. Hamas officials have repeatedly said that complete disarmament must be accompanied by progress toward an independent Palestinian state.
The 20-point peace plan promoted by Trump and signed by Israel and Hamas recognizes Palestinian aspirations for a sovereign state, but Netanyahu and his ministers have consistently rejected the creation of a Palestinian state since the cease-fire went into effect last October.
Last week, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Israel would build settlements in the Gaza Strip and that even if Hamas disarms, it would “not withdraw completely” from the Strip, despite the core tenets of the ceasefire agreement.
Breaking the current deadlock appears vital to many in the region, as deadly attacks by Israeli forces continue to occur almost daily in the Gaza Strip despite the declared ceasefire.
At least 414 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces in the region in the 80 days since the law took effect, according to the Health Ministry.
The Israeli military, which controls more than half of the Gaza Strip, said it opened fire in response to violations of the ceasefire.
During the same period, three Israeli soldiers were killed in an attack that the military attributed to Hamas.
Israel also continues to wait for Hamas to return the body of Ran Gvili, the last hostage to die in Gaza. All hostages taken and those killed in the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led Israeli attack that sparked the war were to be returned three days after the ceasefire went into effect.
Trump’s intervention and U.S. mediation face many problematic and unresolved challenges that could pressure Netanyahu to take a softer line on certain positions.
For example, the Israeli government has opposed Turkey’s participation in the International Stabilization Force to be deployed to the Gaza Strip. But few countries are willing to participate.
Prime Minister Netanyahu will also meet with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is known to support the Israeli government’s position.
Last week, Israeli media reported that the prime minister may be trying to revisit annexation of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, something President Trump has opposed.
Israeli ministers have recently described Israeli settlement expansion in the West Bank as a de facto annexation of territory aimed at burying the possibility of an independent Palestinian state.
Both settlements and annexations are illegal under international law.
Prime Minister Netanyahu is expected to seek U.S. permission for further military strikes against Iran during his meeting with President Trump on Monday.
The Israeli government reportedly believes Iran is rearming its missile capabilities after its nuclear facilities were bombed by Israeli and American warplanes during this summer’s 12-day war.
Iran’s president said this weekend his country was waging an “all-out war” with Israel, the United States and Europe. “They don’t want our country to remain stable,” Massoud Fezeshkian said.
