Ukraine’s forefront and ceasefire scenario mapping

Paul Adams

Bbc diplomatic correspondent

grey placeholderUkraine's BBC Maps overlapped with flag colors -blue at the top, yellow at the bottom. Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's stylized black and white headshots are on both sides of the map with suits and serious forms.Bbc

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will meet in Alaska on Friday.

The Trump Putin summit was swirling whether the Ukrainian willing map will be forcibly and fundamentally changed.

Russia has insisted on Ukraine’s vast part of 2014 since 2014, when President Vladimir Putin’s first movement was shown.

In a short space at the time, Moscow merged and merged with relatively bloodless occupations of the Crimean Peninsula.

However, there was a separatist movement in which Russia was supported in the East Donbas region, especially Donetsk and Luhansk, or “Oblasts”.

The war ended for eight years.

grey placeholderUkraine will shows Ukraine and Russia. The main areas emphasized are Creamea, which was completely merged by Russia in 2014, and Luhansk and Donetsk are labeled, and large patches in the east of the two areas are shaded in purple and represented by Russian separatists. The capital KYIV also has a label that shows the position of Ukraine in Europe.

Ukraine after 2014 and 2022 before the invasion of the charter began

Ukraine lost about 14,000 soldiers and civilians during this period.

But in February 2022, Putin began a full -fledged invasion. The Russian troops quickly reached the outskirts of Keyyf and seized the huge bundles of the south, including two larger Austrites, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.

The war stops and flows since then. Russia is currently controlling some areas, which are currently reduced from about 27%in the spring of 2022 to about 20%. In the east, the Russian army is moving forward, but it is very slow and expensive.

grey placeholderIt may show Russian military control in Ukraine for a month. The solid red area shows complete control of Russia and increases up to 100 km from the Russian border in eastern Ukraine. The red diagonal line shows limited control and reaches almost KYIV's capital. This shows the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions in the southeastern. Source: ISW (March 2022)

2022 Ukraine -1 month dedicated invasion

Ukrainian President VolodyMyr Zelensky said he needs an unconditional ceasefire. European allies also claim to stop fighting. President Donald Trump said that this was what he was trying to achieve.

But at the Alaska summit with Putin, Trump began to talk about territorial swaps. It sent shock waves across KYIV and Europe.

Considering what the land Trump mentions, or that all the territory of that problem belongs to Ukraine, it is not clear how the swap will look.

As of August 2025, Ukrainian territory looks like this:

grey placeholderAs of August 12, 2025, it shows the front line of Ukraine. The area under Russian military control argues that pink is brightened, limited control areas have red stripes, and Russian control areas are yellow. Russia indicates that almost all areas outside the four regions have lost control of the country and almost all areas of the country. Major cities include Kyiv, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Source: ISW

Russia will really like to expand control of Luhansk and Donetsk.

According to some reports, President Putin is demanding that Ukraine is controlled by two Ostlates and handing over the territory.

But it means that KYIV has abandoned a dead place to protect the city of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk and to protect the enhanced lines that protect the Ukrainian territory to the north and west.

grey placeholderIt may emphasize the Donbas area in yellow. The Donetsk Towns of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk is marked inside the area on the side of Ukraine on the front line and is red. Source: August 12, 2025 ISW.

For KYIV, such concessions will be a bitter pill for swallowing. It will be a victory for the mosque bar, which is much more fatal.

Jellen Ski said on Tuesday that Ukraine could not leave Donba when using the Springboard to attack other countries.

In recent years, Russian troops have been pushing hard and making progress near Lila Village. However, it is not yet clear whether this is not clear whether this is a significant strategic movement, or that Moscow has an advantage.

What about Zaporizhzhia and Kherson arrested in 2022?

Russia suggests that it will stop the attack and freeze the route.

grey placeholderThe zaporizhzhia and kherson areas are highlighted in yellow. The front line of Ukraine and Russian troops is indicated in red. The main locations include the sea of KYIV, Mariupol, Crea, Black Sea and Azov. Source: August 12, 2025 ISW.

But are Russia ready to return it?

On Monday, Trump vaguely talked about “all the sea property.”

But this is part of Putin’s strategically important land bridge that connects Russia with Crimia.

It is difficult for a Russian leader to agree to give one of them. Like Donetsk and Luhansk, Putin considers this place as part of Russia and illegally merged three years ago and is widely known as four referendum.

In Ukraine and Europe, territory swaps are not starters at the early stages of conversation.

Discussions on the future border can eventually come, but only when the war is stopped and Ukraine’s security is guaranteed.