What happened this morning was a reaffirmation of Nietzsche’s “might is right.” That doesn’t mean there wasn’t resistance. At a press conference today, military officials said there was significant resistance and one helicopter was hit. However, this operation involved 200 American aircraft operating from 20 bases. How could a country as small as Venezuela resist such a use of force? Trump and Rubio said Venezuela should compensate the United States for “stolen oil.” Trump claimed that the United States built oil facilities and then took them away from us. The story is simple. The Venezuelans or the Venezuelan government are thieves and today’s operation was simply to recover stolen property. By that logic, the United States might have invaded Mexico in 1938 in response to the nationalization of the oil industry and the nationalization of other countries. But the fact is that countries have the right to set their own policies, and moreover, oil has never been “seized,” as Trump claims, since Carlos Andrés Pérez and later Chavez decided to pay reparations in 1976. Moreover, the claim that Maduro is a drug trafficker has no basis in fact. It was rejected by analysts across the political spectrum. Even some who support Maduro’s overthrow say that the drug trafficking claims are baseless but that Maduro should be removed because he is a dictator. But by that logic, the United States should overthrow the governments of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and numerous other undemocratic governments that are allies of the United States. In fact, the United States has always supported dictatorships aligned with Washington, starting with Franco’s in the 1950s when the Eisenhower administration built military bases in Spain.
The Trump administration is expected to be doing everything possible to threaten the Venezuelan government into accepting US terms for the “transition” of Caracas. Trump did not rule out “boots on the ground” and insisted that under no circumstances would the United States allow the Chavez regime to remain in power in Venezuela. But the fact is that the Chávez government has a significant support base, the military has so far remained loyal to Chávez and Maduro, and the opposition, led by Maria Corina Machado (with her unconditional support for Trump and his policies on immigration, sanctions and show of force), has lost significant support in Venezuela over the past year. Trump himself declared to the press today that Machado is unpopular in Venezuela. These factors all suggest that the United States cannot easily impose the type of government Trump seeks.
Moreover, Trump’s statement that Venezuela should compensate the United States for “stolen oil,” the stated goal of its actions against Venezuela, runs counter to Venezuela’s nationalist sentiments. In short, I do not expect Trump to succeed in imposing on Venezuela the submissive government that Washington likes, as he did in Panama in 1989.
