What are the obstacles to the European peace plan for Ukraine?

Frank Gardner

Security Correspondent, BBC News

grey placeholderSit in front of the Ukrainian flag, EPA Zelensky puts his chin on his hand and deeply thinks deeply.EPA

Words (ceasefire, ceasefire or peace plans) used to constitute a plan from the top of Sunday, 19 main European leaders in London -The future challenges are enormous.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, along with French President Emmanuel Macron, hopes to bring this to Ukraine a continuous peace.

The key is the Sir Keir. “Union of will”People who help to guarantee peace if they reach a transaction.

But what is obstacles and how can you easily overcome it?

Can Europe create enough deterrence?

First, can you convene a lot of restraints in order to deploy in Ukraine in Europe’s depleted army and half -empty arsenal? Do countries other than the United Kingdom and France are willing to spend their strength in such uncertain scenarios, given doubts about the US support?

Ukrainian President VolodyMyr Zelensky said he would need international power. Up to 200,000 troops Maintain an armistice along 600 miles (960 km) between Russia and Ukraine of 600 miles (960 km).

The figures are very optimistic, but Ukrainian leaders are right to assess the number of suppression in the future invasion of Russia.

In fact, Europe will struggle to present one -third of the number, and several years after the end of the Peace Dividend after the Cold War, it has had a military influence for decades for decades.

The Air Force is important. This is the release of what is known as ISR (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) and the future invasion of Russia.

If thousands of Russian troops and armored vehicles are poured out 100 miles, the British Army Brigade is not sitting in part of a nominal ceasefire line, and there is no enough means to repel.

The United States has a great ability in signal intelligence, sigint and air airwear, and purely European power will be difficult. International International International Affairs (Iiss), a recent report of London -based think tanks, is as follows.

“The dependence on the military ability of Washington in Europe, especially ISR and Air-to-Air, will be a big challenge without a major investment in the area.”

“The United States also contributes more than half of all NATO fighters and fighter ground attack aircraft.”

In short, collecting reliable suppression to protect Ukraine is not impossible without a US military backup, but it will be very difficult.

Can Trump be persuaded to offer a backstop in the United States?

Overall viewing: amazing exchange between Zelensky, Vance and Trump

Donald Trump likes to say he doesn’t start war.

The last thing he wants to do now is to fight the battle units and the Air Force in a nominally unstable ceasefire line that is likely to erupt from the shooting war wars from the NATO forces.

Instead, he turned on how to finish this war. I signed a direct contract with Russian President Vladimir PutinOne -on -one.

The goal of Sir Keir is to present a reliable ceasefire proposal that Europe can be presented to President Trump with hope. And I will emphasize the word grain. US military backstop.

It is rarely visible until now.

Will Russia accept it?

grey placeholderReuters Putin Gesture sits at the Kremlin's deskReuters

Why is it on Earth? Some will argue.

Although it cost a terrible cost in human life, the ground forces are winning the battlefield, and Ukraine has lost the United States, the largest ally in this war.

Without military support in the United States, Ukraine will have difficulty in advancing the Russian army in the east and south. Without the US Missile, the city will be much vulnerable to Russian mass missiles.

Putin has always made it clear that he will not always accept the existence of NATO members in Ukraine. Now he has an allies effectively in the White House.He is much less likely to go from this point at this point if President Trump cannot provide him a great guidance in return.

The conclusion of all this is that Kremlin did not give up Ukraine’s maximum goal. This will eventually bring the whole country to Moscow’s orbit, replacing Zelen Ski into a fragmented professional Russian doll.

At the very least, Ukraine is unlikely to be a key demand for the key demand for Ukraine not only giving up permanently, but also that Russia is already occupied by Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk.