French Prime Minister François Bayrou will lose his trust in the steward position in the recent twist during the chaos within the National Assembly.
The 74 -year -old Bayrou was the fourth prime minister by President Emmanuel Macron in two years, and his second term was darkened by political instability.
The minority government of Bayrou demanded a budget cut of 44 billion euros (£ 38 billion) to deal with the public debt in France and is currently heading for a collapse.
The BBC will look at the reasons for this political crisis and what can happen next.
How did we arrive here?
French President Emmanuel Macron gambled in June 2024.
In the European Parliament voting, he faced a loss of bruises for his party and called the Snap Parliamentary election.
Instead, as a result, the parliamentary car’s council has made it difficult for all prime ministers to get the necessary assistance to pass the bill and the annual budget.
Macron appointed Michel Barnier in September, but a person who negotiated BREXIT for the EU within three months. This is the shortest time since the beginning of the 5th Republic of France.
Bayrou will be the same fate nine months after coming to the office in December.
Meanwhile, some political parties (mostly right and left) continue to demand early presidential elections.
Macron said that his term would not always stand before the end of 2027.
Instead, he should choose to appoint the fifth prime minister within two years.
There is little good option for the president because the influence of gambling in June 2024 continues to repercate.
The main problem of Bayrou is the French debt crisis, and what he says is that government spending must be cut to prevent disasters for future generations.
Why is France in a debt crisis?
In short, the French government spent more money than for decades. As a result, you need to borrow to cover the budget.
The French government said in early 2025 that public debt reached 114%of euros or GDP.
This is the third highest public debt in the Eurozone since Greece and Italy and is almost € 50,000 per French citizen.
Last year’s budget deficit was 5.8%of GDP and is expected to be 5.4%this year. Therefore, public debt will continue to increase as the borrowing is insufficient.
Like many developed countries, France is faced with a demographic headache in the aging population. There are few workers who are charged taxes, and more people draw the main pension.
Bayrou is one of the French politicians who want to reduce the deficit by reducing generous social programs such as the National Pension.
Bayrou was addicted to spending in a speech with Congress on Monday and talking about a country about “life support.”
Two years ago, France raised the pension age of those born in 1968 or afterwards from 62 to 64, and Bayrou warned that it was not present that French workers could stop working in the early 60s.
But there are many opposition to additional cuts. The former government of Bayrou collapsed in December with a trust in this issue.
The politicians on the left demanded a tax increase rather than a budget cut.
Bayrou said his work. What happens next?
As expected, if Bayrou loses a vote in the National Assembly early this evening, France will probably be facing another period of doubt, drifting and speculation.
President Emmanuel Macron is likely to act quickly to appoint a new prime minister.
But practicality and precedent suggest that both can be a process.
Macron must at least find a name that can’t be generous enough that some of the parliamentary opposition will not automatically break down.
The first two PMs (Barnier and Bayrou) of the Benisian Council took several weeks. The third is not easier.
In the meantime, Bayrou will be maintained as the government manager.
In some branches of the Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, there is a pressure on the new dissolution of the General Assembly and Parliament. However, there is a strong voice that says it is a waste of time because the new voting will not change much.
In addition, this time there is a voice calling for resignation as a president from the far left. But do not look at this space. Knowing the personality of a person is the lowest.
Who can replace Bayrou?
If Bayrou falls, the pressure will be strong to name Macron from the left. The last two came from the right and the center, and the left alliance was the best in the 2024 election.
Olivier FaureThe leader of the Socialist Party will be a possibility. The 57 -year -old boy has a group of 66 agents in the National Assembly.
There are two other possibilities on the left Former PM Bernard CazeneuveVeteran Unknown Pierre Mos KovicThe official accounting office is in charge of Cour DES COMPTES.
If Macron decides to stick to the center and right, his first choice is probably Sebastien Lecorna, 39The current defense minister, a member of the Macron Renaissance Party, said he was close to the president.
Another conservative that is mentioned is the current minister of labor and health. Catherine Bau Trin.
There are two other possibilities from the internal government Bruno Letta Yaro Minister of Home AffairsThe person leading the Republican Justice Gerald Damain.
But with all the eyes of the 2027 presidential election, will this heavyweight want the death of the elector who will be the next afternoon of Macron?
