Will Iran’s internet shutdown become permanent?

Iran suffered the most extreme internet shutdown in history for 10 days. 92 million citizens were blocked from all internet services, and phone calls and text messages were also cut off.

Iran’s government suspended the service on January 8 to suppress dissent and prevent an international investigation into the government’s crackdown on protesters.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the internet was blocked in response to a “terrorist operation” ordered from outside.

The government has not said when internet services will resume, but new reports suggest that behind the scenes authorities may be planning to permanently restrict internet services.

On January 15, the news website IranWire reported that government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani told reporters that international web access would not be possible until at least the Iranian New Year at the end of March.

Internet freedom observers at FilterWatch believe the government is rushing to implement new systems and rules to cut Iran off from the international internet.

“There should be no expectation that international Internet access will resume, and users’ international Internet access will never return to its previous form,” Filterwatch said, quoting an anonymous government source.

The BBC cannot independently confirm the report or the timing of its implementation, but journalists interviewed by BBC Persian said they had been told that internet access would not be restored anytime soon.

Iran has maintained a tight grip on the internet for years, blocking most Western social media apps and platforms as well as external news websites such as BBC News.

However, many people have used a virtual private network (VPN) to access popular apps like Instagram.

Internet freedom activists at Access Now said Iran has consistently used shutdowns as a way to mask large-scale violence and brutal repression of protesters, as seen in incidents in November 2019 and September 2022 when it shut down the internet across the country during protests.

The closure was also imposed in June 2025 amid the Iran-Israel conflict.

But the current outage has lasted longer than previous shutdowns.

The charity Access Now said in a public statement that full restoration of internet access was essential.

“Restricting access to these essential services not only endangers lives, but also emboldens authorities to cover up and avoid accountability for human rights violations,” he said.

There are already reports that livelihoods in Iran are being severely affected by the lockdown, with e-commerce being particularly affected.

As of January 18, the Human Rights Defenders News Agency (HRANA) estimates there have been more than 3,300 confirmed protester deaths and more than 4,380 cases under review. It also reported that the number of arrests in 187 cities reached 24,266.

The actual number of deaths and detainees is believed to be much higher, but figures cannot be independently verified due to lack of access.

FilterWatch, an internet monitoring project, says the recent lockdowns mean the start of more extreme ‘digital isolation’ and increased scrutiny of what is said, sent and seen online.

Amir Rashidi, director of cybersecurity and digital rights at Miaan Group, which runs FilterWatch, told the BBC that authorities were moving to a tiered system where access to the global internet would no longer be automatic but would require approval.

He expects access will be granted through a registration and screening process, adding that the technical infrastructure for such a system has been in place for several years.

According to FilterWatch, these plans are not mentioned publicly and key decisions are increasingly focused on security agencies rather than civilian ministries.

Protecting Iran from cyberattacks, of which there have been many high-profile and destructive examples in recent years, could be another motivation for taking extreme moves.

But analysts warn that internal power dynamics and broader economic and technological pressures may mean the plan may not be fully realized or applied unevenly.

Amir Rashidi points out that implementation may be further complicated by risks to internet providers, along with the ability of users to adapt or migrate to alternative platforms.

If Iran goes ahead with its reported plans, it would likely follow similar systems in Russia and China.

China has led the world in controlling the Internet, not only through massive state censorship of online discussions but also over what people can access from abroad.

The so-called Great Chinese Firewall blocks citizens from most of the world’s internet, and all Western apps like Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube cannot be connected to without a VPN, but they are becoming increasingly difficult to use.

In 2019, Russia began testing a large-scale plan to create a similar system called Ru-net.

However, unlike China, which established state control over the Internet as the web spread decades ago, Russia must transform state control into a complex system.

Russia plans to go one step further than China and block the World Wide Web (WWW) itself through a ‘kill switch’ that is expected to be used in crisis situations.

The system allows internal internet traffic and keeps the country moving online, but prevents traffic from going out or entering digital borders. However, it has not yet been fully tested.

If reports are accurate, Iran appears to be planning a quasi-combination of permanent internet control by China and Russia.

“There appears to be a move in Iran to isolate everyone from electronic access unless they have government approval,” said Professor Alan Woodward, a computer security expert at the University of Surrey in the UK, after reviewing reports of Iran’s plans.

He believes the Iranian regime may have gone ahead with its long-term plans, including making technological transitions and issuing orders now, citing the current power outage while everything was shut down.

Amir Rashidi says the problem is no longer technical but political, arguing that whether these systems are now fully implemented will depend on political will.

Starlink and other space internet services, known as low-Earth orbit (LEO), have also complicated control over Iran during the protests.

LEO Internet service allows users to connect via satellite, avoiding all censorship and shutdowns.

While the government was able to disrupt and disrupt some Starlink users, other terminals were confirmed to the BBC to be continuing to operate even after the company updated their firmware to circumvent the government’s blocking efforts.

The service, owned by Elon Musk, has also waived subscription fees for Iranian users.

Despite the growing tools used by repressive regimes, Woodward is surprisingly optimistic about the future of the Internet.

He cites advances in LEO and the fact that many phones can now use satellites even when the Internet is down for things like SOS messages.

There are also new apps that use mesh networks based on Bluetooth, allowing you to connect even where there is no connection.

“It is almost inevitable that Internet access will eventually become universal, but it will always be cat and mouse for repressive regimes,” Woodward says.