Yoshiu Hoon
It’s now the last day of January, which means Chinese communities around the world are gearing up for the Lunar New Year and welcoming the Year of the Wood Dragon.
Most people will be planning to get married and have children around this time. The Wood Dragon is considered the most auspicious mythological creature in the Chinese astrological calendar. After all, everyone wants a dragon baby. I should know. In my immediate family, there are far more dragons than others. I don’t know how that has affected the family’s fortunes, but at least we are still a happy bunch together.
The Year of the Wood Dragon in the Asia Pacific travel industry is a year of hope for auspiciousness, abundance and excitement. Some call it the second year of recovery, and hope that it will be the first year when China fully engages with the world, both inbound and outbound.
To be honest, China's outbound engine faltered significantly last year and did not perform as well as many people had hoped and hoped, while inbound was barely a talking point due to too many uncertainties and barriers to entry.
This year is a different story. But before that, it's worth going back 60 years and looking back at when the last Wood Dragon flew.
Curious about what happened in 1964, I asked ChatGPT to summarize the major events that happened specifically in the world, Asia, and travel.
- The British invasion of the American music industry began with the arrival of the Beatles.
- The Gulf of Tonkin incident marked the beginning of an expansion of American military intervention in Vietnam.
- China's first nuclear test.
- Muhammad Ali (then known as Cassius Clay) defeated Sonny Liston to win the boxing heavyweight crown.
- Nelson Mandela's imprisonment began.
- Kenya achieved independence.
Meanwhile, on that year's trip:
- Japan has stepped up its efforts to promote tourism in the run-up to the Tokyo Summer Olympics.
- The Boeing 727, designed for short- to medium-haul routes, has entered service.
- Walt Disney introduced the “It's a Small World” ride at the New York World's Fair.
What does the dragon symbolize?
So what can we expect in the coming Year of the Wood Dragon? Well, I’m not a fortune teller and neither is ChatGPT. So it’s not something that’s going to be replaced by AI anytime soon. But it does say, “The dragon is associated with qualities such as strength, energy, creativity and passion. Wood represents growth, flexibility and expansion. As such, the Year of the Wood Dragon is often seen as a time of innovation, progress and positive change. It can be a time to take risks and pursue new opportunities.”
New Year, New Possibilities
So what are some new opportunities to pursue in Asia in the new year?
- Chinese influx. The Chinese government is going all-in on inbound. In recent months, visa waivers for countries like Malaysia and Thailand have made it easier for Southeast Asian travelers to visit. It was definitely a hurdle for me as a Malaysian passport holder, and travelers from 2020 onwards are less tolerant of such restrictions. So I will definitely be going back to China this year.
- Sent from China. Yes, everyone has been watching it for years. But it will be interesting and different when it comes back. With the economy slowing down and unemployment high, people who can afford to travel will want to travel and have very high expectations, especially in the technology sector. China’s technological innovation and customer adoption is crazy. They have been living and playing in their own bubble for two or three years. So the engagement has to be digital first.
- India is the new China. NYU professor Scott Galloway acknowledged this on the “Pivot” podcast, saying he’s planning his first trip there to explore the possibilities. India has landed a spacecraft on the moon and has more than 1,000 airplanes on order. “Imagine the impact,” said Gaurav Bhatnagar, CEO of online B2B travel distribution platform TBO.com, of the potential impact of airplane orders. “This is an inflection point, and it’s going to be huge. You have a large working population with a lot of purchasing power, and you have Gen Zers who think differently about how they travel but aren’t yet the decision makers. It’s a huge, exciting opportunity for outbound travel.”
- Generational changes across Asia. Michael Dykes, vice president of marketing management for Expedia Group Asia Pacific, firmly believes that demographics set long-term trends. Gen Z already makes up 25% of the population. Add in millennials and it’s 50%. “That’s a huge demographic with very different values and very different childhoods, and that makes a huge difference in how they buy and how they make brand decisions.”
These are just a few of the general contents, and there are many nuances within each that dragon babies will have to dig deep to discover.
'An exciting yet confusing time'
Speaking of taking risks, the most courageous creature, the flexible wood dragon, has a lot to experiment with. The first of these is AI, a generational change in technology.
Bill Gates said on New Year's Day, “The beginning of a new era is often marked by a lot of change. If you're old enough to remember, think back to the beginning of the Internet. At first, you probably didn't know many people who used the Internet. But over time, it became more and more common, and one day we realized that most people had an email address, bought things online, and used search engines to answer their questions.
“We are at the beginning of this transition. It is an exciting and confusing time, and if you haven’t figured out how to best use AI yet, you are not alone. I was thinking about using AI tools in the Foundation’s strategic review this year, which would require reading hundreds of pages of briefing materials that AI could accurately summarize. But old habits die hard, and as always, I came prepared.”
“If I had to make a prediction, I would estimate that in high-income countries like the U.S. it will be 18 to 24 months before the general public uses AI at any significant level,” Gates added. “In African countries, I would estimate it will take about three years to see similar levels of use. There is still a gap, but it is much shorter than the lag we have seen with other innovations.”
He didn't mention Asia, but I'd say, let me be blunt, that Asia will lead in AI innovation and adoption just as it has in social and mobile.
First, the Singapore government has supported a $50 million initiative to develop Southeast Asia’s first large-scale language model ecosystem tailored to the region’s diverse cultures and languages.
Meanwhile, social media was abuzz last week when Singapore unveiled its Lunar New Year dragon decorations in Chinatown, with many saying they resembled Shrek or Japanese comedian Pikotaro rather than a dragon.
I told you, this is going to be a really interesting year.
