US beef prices are soaring. Will Trump’s plan lower that?

Beef prices are so high in the United States that it has become a political issue.

Even Donald Trump, who long ago declared inflation “dead,” is talking about the problem because it risks undermining his pledge to lower food prices for Americans.

This week he took to social media to urge ranchers to lower cattle prices.

But his demands and other proposals his administration has put forth to address the problem have sparked a backlash among ranchers, who worry that some of his solutions will make it harder for them to make a living at a loss at the grocery store.

The number of beef cattle raisers and ranchers in the United States has steadily declined since 1980, driving up prices as domestic supply dwindles and demand remains high.

The U.S. livestock inventory has fallen to its lowest level in nearly 75 years, and the country has lost more than 150,000 cattle ranches since 2017, according to the Department of Agriculture. This is a 17% decrease.

Ranchers say they are under pressure from 40 years of consolidation among the meat processors that buy their livestock, and the burden is compounded by high costs for key inputs such as fertilizer and equipment.

The industry’s decline has worsened as years of drought have forced ranchers to cut their herds.

Illinois rancher Christian Lovell said parts of his farm that had lush grass when he was young have now dried out, limiting where his cattle can graze.

“When you put all this together, you have a recipe for a broken market,” said Lovell, who works for the advocacy group Farm Action.

Retail prices for ground beef rose 12.9% in the 12 months through September, while beef steaks rose 16.6%, according to U.S. inflation data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

A pound of ground chuck now costs an average of $6.33 (4.75 pounds) compared to $5.58 a year ago.

This figure far exceeds the general food price inflation rate of 3.1%.

“Cattle herds have been shrinking over the last few years, but people still want American beef, so prices are high,” said Brenda Boetel, a professor of agricultural economics at the University of Wisconsin, River Falls.

Derrell Peel, a professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University, said he expects prices to continue rising until at least the end of the decade and that it will take years to replenish livestock stocks.

Mr. Peel added that the Trump administration’s “hands are tied” when it comes to interventions to help lower prices.

This week, the Department of Agriculture unveiled a “major package” aimed at boosting domestic beef production by opening up more land for livestock grazing and supporting small meat processors.

The proposal comes after President Trump drew the ire of ranchers by proposing to quadruple purchases by importing more beef from Argentina.

Eight House Republicans sent a letter to the White House expressing concerns about President Trump’s import plan.

Even the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, which has supported Trump’s policies in the past, said the import plan “will do nothing to lower grocery store prices and will only cause confusion at a critical time of year for American livestock producers.”

Trump assured farmers he was helping them in other ways, citing tariffs limiting imports from Brazil.

“It would be great if they understood that, but prices have to come down, too, because the consumer is a very big factor in my thinking,” Trump wrote.

But that didn’t quell the anger.

Justin Tupper, president of the American Livestock Industry Association, said he believes only the big four meatpackers will benefit from Trump’s import plan.

“I don’t see prices coming down here at all,” Mr. Tupper said.

Some say the government could have an impact if it focused on how a few companies dominate the meat processing market.

Today, just four companies control more than 80% of the beef slaughter and packaging market.

“These integrated markets are defrauding consumers from ranchers and stores,” said Austin Frerick, an agricultural and antitrust policy expert and researcher at Yale University.

Meat processing companies Tyson, JBS, Cargill and National Beef are facing multiple lawsuits, including one from McDonald’s that alleges they conspired to inflate beef prices.

President Trump earlier this year revoked a Biden-era order directing agencies to address corporate consolidation across the food system, but his administration has taken other steps to look into competition issues in the agriculture industry.

Mike Callicrate operates a cattle ranch in St. Francis, Kansas. He said the only way for him to survive in the industry was to cut out the middleman and open a store that could reach consumers directly.

But Callicrate acknowledged most ranchers don’t have the money to make such changes. Many people have left the industry and there is no incentive to jump back in.

“We are not going to rebuild this herd until we address the market concentration issues,” Mr Callicrate said.

He said he supports the Department of Agriculture’s plan to open up more livestock grazing land to increase production and lower retail prices.

“But if we don’t have a market, you are a fool to get into the livestock business,” he added.

Bill Bullard found himself among the first wave of ranchers forced out when the meat processing industry began consolidating in the early 1980s.

He closed his 300-head operation in South Dakota in 1985.

Bullard, now chief executive officer of R-CALF USA, a trade association for livestock producers, said it has only been in the past year or so that ranchers have been getting good prices for their cattle because supplies have been so low that the prices meat processors are paying “have simply had to go up.”

Still, dependence on imports and the purchasing power of meat packers persists, meaning ranchers “lack confidence in the integrity of the market” and are reluctant to raise livestock, Mr Bullard said.

He said he was not confident the president’s ideas would solve the problem.

“He focused on the symptoms, not the problem,” he said.