Many travel agents and suppliers were hoping that the current downturn in bookings during the pandemic would not last as long as it has.
While some companies are still seeing strong last-minute demand and are even adding capacity to meet it, many say the booking curve is finally returning to historic levels.
According to G Adventures, travelers are booking earlier and earlier, with bookings increasing as much as five months in advance of departure — roughly in line with the six-month lead time the company typically saw pre-pandemic.
EF Go Ahead Tours is also booking longer. “Bookings through May, two to four months before departure, are up 23% year-over-year and 7% year-over-year,” says Jessica Trammell, vice president of marketing for EF Go Ahead Tours.
EF Go Ahead Tours group visiting the beaches of Normandy. Photo courtesy of EF Go Ahead Tours
Collette's booking curve has returned to pre-pandemic levels more than 200 days before departure, said Jeff Roy, the company's vice president of revenue management.
“Our booking activity has returned to historically normal patterns,” he said, adding that most departures are operating with some remaining availability, allowing travelers to accommodate close-in bookings if they have flexibility in their schedules.
Fulfilling last minute requests
Intrepid Travel is one of those tour operators that still sees a lot of last-minute bookings, sometimes with great difficulty, but still tries to accommodate them.
“This is a very hot topic for us right now,” said Matt Berna, Intrepid’s president and managing director of the Americas. “Our European team is being inundated with late requests that require a lot of manual work.”
In late May, Intrepid added more than 300 new departures to some of the world’s most popular destinations, citing data showing that 85% of Americans plan to travel this summer. These “high-volume destinations,” which include Italy, Greece, Portugal, Iceland, Morocco and Japan, are places where Intrepid said supply has not kept up with exceptional summer travel demand in 2023.
Intrepid said it is working to secure enough hotel rooms, staff and tour guides to properly execute the trip to support additional departures.
“We have staff working tirelessly to reach out to hoteliers and staff in DMCs in key countries to secure more capacity,” Berna said. “We have also reached out to hoteliers to see if they can extend their allocations until closer to departure, allowing them to hold last-minute rooms up to two weeks before departure.”
Even though G Adventures’ booking curve has returned to pre-pandemic levels, there is still demand for close-in travel. One page on the website is dedicated to last-minute trips and travel deals departing in the next 60 days, and as of July 5, it had 151 tours. “It’s a very popular page, and it’s something that a lot of our agents and clients check out every day,” said Steve Lima, vice president of growth for the U.S. and Latin America.
Uniworld said the booking curve has not returned to normal levels and that demand for cruises within 90 days of departure is up compared to historical norms.
The river cruise line is offering up to $3,000 off nearly all 2023 itineraries when you bundle your cruise with a flight for travel booked by July 31. “This is perfect for travelers looking to save last minute on their trips this year,” CEO Ellen Bettridge said.
Low satisfaction with last minute reservations
Some firms target last-minute bookings, but this has the disadvantage of shortening the booking curve for both advisors and clients.
“There are still a lot of people who think they can get to Europe in four weeks because they ‘want to avoid the crowds,’” says Angela Hughes, president of Trips and Ships Luxury Travel in Winter Garden, Fla. “It’s virtually impossible.”
Hughes cited lack of availability of staff, accommodations and other amenities, as well as high prices for airfares, as key challenges when trying to accommodate last-minute travel requests.
She also said that customers are often disappointed because they are willing to spend a lot of money to get away at the last minute, but their efforts often go to waste if they cannot overcome logistical barriers such as staffing issues.
“Even at the high end, there are no private drivers or tour guides,” Hughes said. “The labor market has not recovered, and there are fewer drivers and guides to choose from.”
Uniworld says the booking curve has not returned to normal. There is huge demand for river cruises departing within 90 days. Photo courtesy of Jerry Clausing
Vendors say having additional inventory and adequate staffing to run more tours this summer has helped ease the pressure associated with last-minute bookings.
However, suppliers and advisors are also trying to mitigate travel demand to some extent by encouraging peak season travel.
“The breathtaking airfares and anticipated crowds surrounding the Italian summer vacation season have caused travelers to reconsider fitting their trips into the summer season and look to shoulder seasons beyond September,” said Melissa Da Silva, president of Trafalgar North America.
“Already bookings for October are up 22% on Trafalgar European tours,” she added. “And with the mild weather, fewer crowds, better prices and still having a delicious cafe and family-run cooking classes, it’s definitely a move to get the full experience.”
