A 3D rendering of the Iranian Shahed-136 drone, a device with two triangular-shaped wings attached to a central fuselage. It has an engine the size of a small motorcycle and carries 110 pounds of explosives.
Engine the size of a small motorcycle
It carries 110 pounds of explosives.
One of the biggest lessons from the war with Iran is that Iran has proven to be a surprisingly capable adversary to the United States. Despite Iran’s willingness to attack, it has forced the United States and its regional allies to confront cheap drones on the battlefield.
An Iranian drone built with commercial technology costs about $35,000 to produce. This is a fraction of the cost of the advanced military interceptors sometimes used to bring them down.
Cheap drones have transformed the war in Ukraine and allowed the Iranians to exploit gaps in U.S. defense investment that have historically prioritized accurate but expensive solutions.
Countering drones has been a key Pentagon priority for years, according to Michael C. Horowitz, a former Pentagon official in the Biden administration. “But there was no drive to scale the solution,” he said.
In the first six days, the United States spent $11.3 billion on the war with Iran. The White House and the Pentagon did not provide updated estimates, but the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank, estimated in early April that the U.S. had spent about $25 billion to $35 billion on the war, with interceptor missiles accounting for most of the cost. Many missile defense experts also worry that interceptor missile stockpiles are now dangerously low.
Here’s an analysis of some of the ways the United States and its allies have responded to Iran’s drones, and why they are so costly.
air attack
In an ideal scenario, early warning aircraft would spot the drones when they are hundreds of miles from their targets, and fighter jets such as F-16s would be dispatched from military bases. The F-16 can then use Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS) II rockets to launch the drone from about six miles away.
3D rendering of an F-16 fighter jet firing an APKWS II rocket from under one wing. Depending on air defense protocols, two to three rockets are launched per drone. Two APKWS II rockets and an hour of F-16 flight cost about $65,000, slightly less than twice the cost of an Iranian Shahed-136.
Launches 2-3 interceptors per drone
This type of defensive air patrol is cost-effective, but is not always available due to the wide scope of the conflict. According to NBC News, Iran has also targeted early warning aircraft that the United States needs to detect drones at that range.
Another option for detecting and shooting down drones is a variety of ground-based detection systems, but these all have drawbacks because their ability to detect low-flying drones is limited by the curvature of the Earth.
drone defense system
One of the ground-based defense systems that the United States and its allies have built specifically to counter short-range drones is Coyote. It can intercept drones up to 9 miles away.
A 3D rendering of the Coyote Block 2 interceptor, which appears to be a 3-foot-long tube with a small rocket on one end. The price of two Coyotes is about $253,000, about seven times the price of Iran’s Shahed-136.
Coyote is significantly less expensive than other ground-based defense systems available to the United States and its allies and is effective in defending historically important assets. But despite being effective and cost-effective, relatively few coyotes have been procured by the U.S. military in recent years.
When Iran-backed militias attacked U.S. ground forces in the region in 2023 and 2024, there were so few coyotes available that the military had to shuffle its systems between eight bases in the region almost daily, according to a report by the Center for a New American Security, a Washington think tank.
Ship-based anti-missile defense
Most of the long-range ground-based defense systems that the United States and its allies can use to combat drones are more expensive because they are designed to shoot down aircraft and ballistic missiles, not drones. For example, a radar system on board a Navy destroyer can detect a drone from 30 miles away and shoot it down with a Standard Missile 2 (SM-2) interceptor. As with air attacks, military protocol dictates that at least two missiles be launched.
A 3D rendering of the deck of a Navy destroyer launching an SM-2 missile from a built-in launcher, making it look like a 15-foot missile launching from a lattice hole in the ship’s surface. The price of two SM-2 missiles is about $4.2 million, which is about 120 times the price of Iran’s Shahed-136 missiles.
This discrepancy between America’s defense systems and current combat tactics began after the Cold War. The anticipated threat at the time was fewer, faster, more advanced projectiles rather than mass drone attacks.
Iran often releases multiple Shahed-136 drones at a time because they are cheaper. The drones also have destinations programmed before launch and can travel about 1,500 miles, allowing them to reach targets throughout the Middle East.
“This category of low-cost precision strike did not exist when most U.S. air defenses were being developed,” Mr. Horowitz said.
ground-based missile defense
The Army’s standard air defense system is Patriot. Typically deployed on military bases, the PAC-3 missile segment enhanced interceptors can be used to shoot down drones from up to about 27 miles away. Military protocol stipulates the launch of at least two missiles.
A 3D rendering of a Patriot launcher carrying a 17-foot PAC-3 MSE missile looks like a tilted shipping container with scaffolding. The price of two PAC-3 MSE missiles is about $8 million, which is about 220 times the price of Iran’s Shahed-136 missiles.
Patriot Missile Defense System
Air defense training teaches soldiers to prioritize using long-range defensive systems “to get as many apples as possible,” but that’s the most expensive, said Stacie Pettyjohn, senior fellow and director of the defense program at the Center for a New American Security.
But costly defenses may make economic sense to protect valuable targets, especially those that are difficult to repair or replace, such as the nearly $1.1 billion radar at a Qatari military base and the $500 million air defense sensors at a Jordan base that were damaged early in the conflict.
ground based guns
Finally, there is what you might call a last resort: land-based guns. When a drone is about a mile or less than a minute away from hitting its target, a device like the Centurion C-RAM can be launched quickly to bring down the drone.
A 3D rendering of the Centurion C-RAM looks like a gun mounted on a rotating cylindrical stand. This gun fires 75 rounds per second. The total cost of launch is $30,000 per 5 seconds, slightly less than a single Iranian Shahed-136.
Centurion counter rockets, artillery and mortars
Fires 375 rounds of ammunition in 5 seconds.
Centurion C-RAM is quite cost-effective, but its operating range is too short, so it is not the best choice.
interceptor drone
There are also AI-based interceptor drones that can be said to be the future of drone combat. Interceptor drones like the Merops Surveyor can theoretically hunt and shoot down enemy projectiles at short range.
A 3D rendering of the Surveyor drone, which looks like a 3-foot tube with wings and a tail. The Merops drone costs about $30,000, slightly cheaper than a single Iranian Shahed-136.
Merops System: Surveyor Drone
Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt founded the company to develop the Merops anti-drone system in collaboration with Ukrainian fighters, which have already been fighting Iranian drones in the war against Russia for years.
The United States has sent thousands of Merops units to the Middle East since the conflict began, but it is unclear whether they will be deployed. According to a report by Business Insider, the military began training on the system during the war.
Other attempts to lower the cost-per-shot ratio by bringing out drones have failed.
The Pentagon has invested more than $1 billion in fiscal 2024 to research directed energy weapons, or lasers, that cost just $3 per shot and have a range of 12 miles. These systems have not yet been used in the field.
Despite the cost imbalance, the real fear of many in the defense industry is that munitions stocks will be depleted.
“What I fear is that there will be a shortage of these things,” said Tom Carracco, director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “It’s not that we can’t afford it, it’s that we will run out before we can replace it.”
