Probower’s first year in office due to food poisoning and protests in Indonesia

When Prabowo Subianto campaigned to become Indonesia’s new president, he promised dynamic economic growth and significant social change.

But his first year in office did not live up to this populist platform. Rather, his ambitious promises have come face to face with the reality of Southeast Asia’s largest economy.

Frustrated young people worried about their jobs took to the streets in late August to protest the rising cost of living, corruption and inequality. The government was forced to withdraw special privileges for politicians who sparked public outrage. Earlier this year there were large-scale protests against budget cuts that would hit health and education spending.

What didn’t help was that this coincided with an expensive free school meals program costing $28 billion (£20.8 billion) a year. The plan, a key part of Prabowo’s agenda, aims to address child malnutrition, improve education outcomes and stimulate the economy. Officials describe it as “an investment in Indonesia’s future.”

But images have emerged in recent months showing weak and dehydrated children – some as young as seven – hooked up to intravenous lines. I got food poisoning after eating a free lunch.

With more than 9,000 children falling ill since the plan was launched in January, critics are questioning whether the plan is working at all or whether it is straining public resources while piling up debt.

Analysts warn that all of these challenges highlight broader problems with public spending and oversight, which in turn are creating greater strain on Indonesia’s $1.4 trillion economy.

This is a critical time for the vast archipelago, home to more than 280 million people across thousands of islands.

Despite steady annual growth of around 5% in recent years, Indonesia is under pressure from slowing global demand, rising costs of living and competition from regional neighbors such as Vietnam and Malaysia. Both countries have successfully attracted foreign companies looking to diversify their production away from China.

Last August’s protests, which left 10 people dead, illustrate the extent of public anger against Prabowo’s government. Protesters have accused it of prioritizing honorable policies and projects over economic support.

Prabowo and his ministers, who have set an ambitious growth target of 8% by 2029, continue to defend their policies, saying they will create jobs and stimulate demand.

“We have experience growing above 7%, so Indonesia knows that higher growth is possible. But of course we have to look at the global economy and global trade,” Airlangga Hartarto, Indonesia’s Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, told the BBC.

Experts say such growth requires careful management of public finances and foreign investment.

Adam Samdin of advisory firm Oxford Economics said Danantara, a new sovereign wealth fund targeting high-impact projects across renewable energy and advanced manufacturing, could spur higher growth.

Airlangga told the BBC that Indonesia was “ready” and “willing to spend in the right sectors of the economy.”

But ambitious and challenging promises, such as the free school meals program, call into question Prabowo’s priorities. Some health-focused non-governmental organizations are urging him to stop the plan.

“It took Brazil 11 years to reach 47 million beneficiaries. We reached 30 million in 11 months. I am very proud of what we have achieved,” he said last month.

Another example is India, which feeds nearly 120 million students through the world’s largest school feeding program.

But unlike Brazil or India, Indonesia’s program has been criticized as ineffective due to large-scale food poisoning despite much higher costs.

Indonesia faces unique challenges. Mr Samdin said there was no infrastructure in place to safely and quickly deliver meals to schools across the 6,000 inhabited islands.

This includes adequate refrigerated transportation as well as stringent food safety standards and resources to keep food fresh, even in tropical heat.

Governments are therefore relying on third parties and contractors for their programs, making quality more difficult to monitor.

But the faltering flagship program is not Prabowo’s only challenge.

Due to US President Donald Trump’s trade war, Indonesia is currently subject to a 19% tariff on exports to the US.

Airlangga, who was involved in the negotiations, said he was grateful for tariff rates that would allow him to compete with rivals such as Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines and that he expected the U.S.-Indonesia trade agreement to be signed by the end of October.

But 19% is still a high cost for exporters, who will face pressure to redirect Chinese goods to Asia to avoid high tariffs in Europe and the United States.

Indonesia, which is seeking new markets and partners, last month signed a trade deal with the European Union that it has been negotiating for nearly a decade. Airlangga expects trade with the bloc to increase 2.5 times over the next five years.

But the investments that have boosted manufacturing and created jobs in countries like Thailand and Vietnam have become a challenge here.

Foreign companies have long complained about bureaucratic procedures and the costs of doing business in Indonesia, but the country’s still large consumer base and resources have prompted the move. It contains nickel and copper, which are essential for electric vehicles and other green technologies, as well as palm oil.

However, this was not an industry that required massive manpower. That means it has not created jobs on the same scale as manufacturing in countries like China or Vietnam.

Airlangga said Indonesia is currently investing in the digital economy to create more jobs and boost growth. But being able to provide data centers and other ventures with enough workers with the right skills is a big question.

Data centers also require investment, and investors have been rattled, especially after the abrupt dismissal of respected former finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati.

Mulyani’s home was ransacked by protesters, who blamed her for the high cost of living. Her successor is Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, a relatively unknown civil servant. He said the protests were due to financial “mistakes.”

He is a big supporter of Prabowo’s ambition to achieve 8% annual growth by 2029. This is a growth rate the country has not achieved since the 1990s.

Despite the current growth rate of 5%, some economists dispute the economic data, claiming it has been politicized to achieve Prabowo’s growth targets. Airlangga denied this.

“I am optimistic that Indonesia remains attractive,” he said, citing “the value chain, the investment climate and the pace of President Prabowo’s deregulation.”

But economists say falling car sales, falling foreign investment, a contraction in manufacturing and reports of layoffs suggest economic activity is weakening rather than strengthening.

“The Indonesian economy is based on consumption, so from the perspective that it can continue to provide a steady engine even if it does not grow significantly,” Mr. Samdin said.

“Growth may slow, but population size will provide some economic activity.”

This may reassure optimistic investors, but it does not solve the challenges facing President Prabowo.