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A new health advisory from the U.S. Surgeon General linking alcohol and cancer may cause consumers to rethink their drinking habits, and the industry is bracing for the potential impact.
Outgoing U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy outlined the link between alcohol consumption and cancer on January 3. He pointed out that an individual’s risk of developing cancer due to alcohol consumption is due to a complex mix of biological and environmental factors.
“Alcohol is a well-established and preventable cause of cancer, responsible for approximately 100,000 cancer cases and 20,000 cancer deaths each year in the United States. This is more than the 13,500 alcohol-related traffic deaths annually in the United States. Murthy said he was unaware of these risks.
Health officials noted that there is an established correlation between alcohol consumption and several forms of cancer, including breast, colon, esophagus, liver, mouth, throat and larynx cancers. Murthy added that drinking no more than one drink a day can increase your risk of developing cancer.
In a full advisory accompanying the surgeon general’s statement, the Department of Health and Human Services pointed to 2019 data showing that only 45% of Americans recognized the link between cancer and alcohol.
The industry advisory acknowledges the health risks of alcohol consumption, but emphasizes that the health consequences of alcohol consumption are complex.
In a statement released last week, the Distilled Spirits Council of America said the surgeon general’s recommendations did not look at “broad health outcomes” and pointed to studies looking only at a risk between alcohol and breast cancer.
“Current health warnings have broadly informed consumers about health risks for decades, and it is the role of the federal government to determine proposed changes to warning statements based on the full body of scientific research,” the liquor commission said. . “The industry is committed to complying with all laws and regulations that apply to our labeling.”
TD Cowen analyst Robert Moskow said in a note to investors that beverage manufacturers should brace for a backlash from the report as some consumers put more distance between themselves and alcohol. He said the surgeon general prioritized releasing the report ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration to call attention to the issue before Murthy is replaced.
“It is too early to know whether the incoming presidential administration will make this a priority, but we see this as another reason to believe that per capita (alcohol) consumption in the United States will likely remain stagnant in the medium term and that investors will exercise their will. We need to be careful in this area,” Moskow said.
Supporter of the “Make America Healthy Again” movement led by Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Health and Human Services, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. —It could influence policy over the next four years to demonize alcohol producers and mandate more warning labels on alcohol labels, Moskow predicted.
Analyst TD Cowen also said the liquor lobby would “aggressively” fight increased regulatory scrutiny. Beer companies like Molson Coors and AB InBev stand to lose the most from the advisory, as they have already lost ground among younger consumers due to the rise of ready-to-drink cocktails and cannabis, according to Moskow.
The surgeon general’s recommendations were published during Dry January, when many people abstain from alcohol for a month. Non-alcoholic adult beverage manufacturers believe that greater scrutiny of the health effects of alcohol could serve as a gateway for consumers looking for alternatives, especially Generation Z, who drink less alcohol than previous generations.
