Throughout history, many powers have dragged reluctant nations into war.
States may feel obliged to take action to protect important economic interests, such as access to basic resources and transportation routes. In some cases, the stimulus is more direct, such as when a missile enters the airspace. Mutual defense treaties can act as tripwires that entangle allies, and larger powers can pressure their proxies to intervene.
Raising the risk of war to impose costs on more and more countries is part of Iran’s strategy. Tehran, faced with overwhelming airstrikes that killed many of its leaders, sees the moment as an existential one.
“From Iran’s perspective, they are going to be big, and this will be their last war,” said Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The Iranian government has decided “either we will take a position in the region or we will be fighting,” she said.
Iran is trying to make the conflict too politically flaming and too costly for the United States to continue while its military is depleted and overwhelmed.
To that end, Iran has been attacking data centers and oil facilities in Gulf countries friendly to the United States. They also paralyzed shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, sending crude prices soaring above $100 a barrel and raising fears that global inflation could reach dire levels.
Despite the presence of bases in the Gulf region and violations of NATO airspace, European leaders are trying to stay out of the conflict. But brutal economic realities could change the calculations, analysts say. “The most likely problem of a serious disruption to global energy supplies is the problem of attracting other powers,” said Robert Johnson, director of the Center for Changing the Nature of War at Oxford University.
With so many actors already involved, the war can quickly unfold in different directions. “Tehran cannot control the dynamics of escalation. No one can,” Mr. Yacoubian said.
It has already created a parallel front in Lebanon, breaking a fragile ceasefire between Israel and the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah. And analysts warn that Yemen’s Houthi militia, another Iranian ally, could join the conflict. If so, it could strengthen threats to ships transiting the Red Sea, creating a second global trade gateway.
As the conflict escalates, the chances of it being resolved through negotiations remain slim.
“It’s very difficult to know where the creative diplomatic outlets are,” Mr. Yacoubian said. “I’m afraid things will get worse before they get better.”
