Trump invites Felix Tshisekedi of Democratic Republic of Congo and Paul Kagame of Rwanda to sign peace agreement

The leaders of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda are expected to sign a peace deal aimed at ending the region’s long-running conflict at a summit hosted by U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington.

Ahead of the summit, fighting in resource-rich eastern Congo has intensified between government forces and rebels believed to be backed by Rwanda.

DR Congo’s army has accused its rivals of trying to “destroy” the peace process, but M23 rebels say the army violated the ceasefire and launched an offensive.

Earlier this year, the M23 overran large parts of eastern DR Congo, killing thousands and forcing many more from their homes.

Democratic Republic of Congo President Felix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame have frequently exchanged insults in recent years, accusing each other of starting the conflict.

President Trump had the foreign ministers of both countries sign a peace agreement last June and hailed it as a “glorious victory.”

Tshisekedi and Kagame are now expected to endorse it, along with several other African and Arab leaders, including Burundi and Qatar, who are expected to attend the signing ceremony.

M23 will not attend. It is being negotiated with the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo in a parallel peace process led by Qatar.

The Trump administration has been leading talks between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, hoping that resolving differences between the two neighbors could pave the way for increased U.S. investment in the resource-rich region.

Rwanda denies supporting M23, despite UN experts saying the Rwandan military is “in de facto control of M23 operations.”

Despite the fanfare and the two leaders’ presence in Washington, some analysts are skeptical that the agreement will lead to lasting peace.

“There is currently no ceasefire in place and the M23 insurgency continues to expand and consolidate its control,” Bram Verelst, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, a South African-based think tank, told the BBC.

“It is unlikely that the signing ceremony will change the situation, although there is some small hope that it may increase accountability to honor the commitments of the leaders of Congo and Rwanda,” he said.

M23 captured major cities in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, including Goma and Bukavu, earlier this year.

DR Congo army spokesman General Sylvain Ekenge said in a statement that rebels launched a new offensive on villages in South Kivu province on Tuesday.

The town is about 75km from the city of Uvira, on the border with Burundi, and has been the headquarters of the South Kivu regional government since rebels took over Bukavu.

M23 said DR Congo forces launched air and ground attacks against its positions, which were carried out in coordination with Burundian forces.

Burundi has not commented on the claims. There are thousands of troops in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo to support the fighting forces.

Rwanda said it had adopted “defensive measures” in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo due to threats from FDLR militias, which include fighters who committed the 1994 Rwandan genocide.

Kagame calls for the FDLR to be disarmed, while the Democratic Republic of Congo calls for Rwandan troops to be withdrawn from its territory.

Both of these conditions are included in the peace agreement to be signed in Washington.

But several deals dating back to the 1990s failed after Rwanda accused the previous Congolese government of failing to disarm the FDLR, and it remains one of the main stumbling blocks to current efforts to end the conflict.

DR Congo’s government has also demanded that the M23 give up territory it has occupied, which it has so far refused to do in talks brokered by Qatar.

Qatar and the United States are coordinating mediation efforts. Qatar has strong ties with Rwanda, while the United States appears to be closer to the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The U.S. State Department says the Democratic Republic of Congo’s mineral reserves will be worth about $25 trillion (£21.2 trillion) in 2023.

These include cobalt, copper, lithium, manganese and tantalum, key ingredients needed to make electronic components used in computers, electric vehicles, cell phones, wind turbines and military hardware.

Before signing the agreement in June, President Trump said, “As part of this, the United States is obtaining a lot of mineral rights from Congo.”

Canadian political scientist Professor Jason Stearns, who specializes in the region, told the BBC that the United States had been pushing for an economic agreement that would see the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda cooperate on hydropower, mining and infrastructure development.

“The logic is that it will provide peace dividends,” he said.

But the Democratic Republic of the Congo has made it clear that it will sign the agreement but “will not advance the agreement until Rwandan troops withdraw from eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo,” Professor Stearns added.