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Diving overview:
- Turkey could lose its Thanksgiving monopoly That’s as demand for poultry items faces a long-term decline and consumers consider other protein options such as beef and pork, according to a report released by CoBank this month.
- This year’s overall turkey supply is 100 million pounds lower than in 2018, while turkey stocks are up 4% compared to the same period last year. As a result, turkey prices at grocery stores could be lower this year, according to a report from Co-operative Bank.
- Retail turkey consumption hit a 43-year low last holiday season, and turkey production costs have continued to rise since early 2023 due to avian flu outbreaks and high feed prices.
Dive Insights:
Turkey has long been considered the centerpiece of the Thanksgiving table, but a mix of supply and demand factors and ongoing inflationary pressures hitting consumers are raising questions about its future as a star.
Frozen turkeys have appeared 36% less frequently in retail advertising since 2018, according to USDA data cited in the report, indicating demand for the item may have plateaued. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index, turkey prices fell 2.3% in September.
According to a report from CoBank, turkeys are often “loss leaders” for grocery stores, which mark the birds at lower prices in the hope that consumers will buy more of the item in the same trip.
Brian Earnest, animal protein economist at CoBank, said in the report that many consumers only cook one turkey a year for Thanksgiving, so throwing that item away creates a gap that other protein options can fill in its place. However, analysts noted that while whole turkey sales did not increase, ground turkey sales increased 5.5% compared to 2023, according to Circana data.
“Ground turkey is the second largest ground category after ground beef. This strongly suggests that while the traditional image of the turkey may be Norman Rockwell’s iconic ‘Freedom from Desire’ painting, American consumers’ perception of turkey is changing,” Earnest said.
Turkish producers remain optimistic about this year’s holiday prospects. In a report released earlier this fall, Butterball found that 87% of Thanksgiving hosts expect to serve a turkey this year, and 86% of consumers plan to celebrate the holiday with an average of nine people attending the meal.
