Pete Hegseth, the top U.S. War Department official, told a congressional hearing Tuesday that he considers Cuba a national security threat, citing allegations that the country is sharing intelligence and supporting America’s enemies, including Russia.
His comments came on a day when U.S. President Donald Trump said he was still enjoying negotiations with Cuba even as the White House said the Cuban regime was collapsing.
The mixed signals are fueling speculation that the United States may be preparing an operation in Cuba similar to its intervention against Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro in January.
Hegseth told Cuban-American Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart: “We’ve been concerned for a long time that foreign adversaries using those kinds of locations close to our shores is very problematic. We don’t want foreign adversaries trying to take advantage of that environment,” he said.
Venezuela’s links with America’s geopolitical enemies, namely Russia and China, were a key factor in the United States attacking Venezuela and ousting President Nicolas Maduro through military operations.
U.S. President Donald Trump also criticized Cuba yesterday, calling it a “failed country and headed in only one direction: downward.” But the US leader also wrote: “Cuba is asking for help and we will talk!!!”
The Cuban government previously confirmed that it was engaging in talks with the United States to ease tensions between the two countries. It is unclear whether Trump is referring to a continuation of existing talks or whether he is proposing a high-level meeting between Cuban and American leaders.
Similarities emerge with the Venezuelan operation
Criticism of the Cuban alliance is not the only sign that the United States is seeking to carry out a Venezuelan-style regime change operation there. Before Maduro’s arrest, U.S. reconnaissance flights over Venezuela increased significantly, a pattern that appears to be repeating itself in Cuba.
According to CNN, the U.S. Navy and Air Force have conducted at least 25 intelligence-gathering flights over Cuba’s coastline since early February, many of them near Cuba’s major cities of Havana and Santiago de Cuba. Before February, such flights were very rare.
These intelligence flights follow the Trump administration’s recent tightening of sanctions against Cuba, a near-complete U.S. blockade of the island nation’s oil, and the Trump administration’s repeated threats of regime change.
The U.S. government has also expanded its rhetoric of blocking Venezuelan oil tankers and threatening regime change before attacking the country. These similarities may not be coincidental. Successive U.S. administrations have seen simultaneously weakening Cuba and Venezuela as a core ideological priority.
In 2018, then-US national security adviser John Bolton called the two countries, along with Nicaragua, part of a “triad of tyranny” that threatened US interests in Latin America in 2018. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has previously stated that the positive effect of regime change in Venezuela would be to weaken the Cuban government.
Venezuela has long been an ally of Cuba and, as the country with the world’s largest oil reserves, has been Cuba’s main oil supplier for decades. The Chavista Venezuelan government and the communist Cuban government were close regional allies.
However, the Cuban-Venezuelan alliance appears to have been severed as Maduro stepped down and was replaced by Delcy Rodriguez, who had so far tolerated pressure from the United States.
Political risks of U.S.-backed regime change in Cuba
Dr Andrew Gawthorpe, lecturer in US foreign policy and history at Leiden University, said: Latin America Report About the similarities between the geopolitical developments in Cuba and Venezuela.
Gawthorpe asserted that “the current events (in Cuba) are similar to those that preceded those in Venezuela,” adding, “These activities may be a prelude to a direct attack… or an attempt to pressure the Cuban government to yield to American demands. It is difficult to say which.”
The professor also noted that the United States is currently locked in a war with Iran, which could complicate its intervention in Cuba.
“What happens in the Caribbean is connected to what happens in the Middle East. The Department of Defense has moved a large military force to the Middle East to fight Iran, and more military forces may still be needed,” Gawthorpe said.
He also warned that attacks on the Caribbean country during the ongoing US-Iran conflict could prove politically imprudent. “Trump may be tempted by the idea of a quick victory in Cuba… but engaging in another military engagement is politically and militarily risky.”
The U.S.-Iran war that began last February has become increasingly unpopular among the American public. silver bulletin board More than 55% now report that they are opposed to the conflict.
Gawthorpe believes the Iran conflict is contributing to a shift in American public opinion toward conflict aversion, a factor Trump should consider before attacking Cuba.
“There is a tremendous appetite in the United States right now for the administration to focus on domestic issues, especially the cost of living, and not waste time starting foreign wars that have little relevance to ordinary Americans. This feeling is especially strong in the Trump base.”
However, the operation to eliminate Maduro has had lower rates of disapproval due to its success and lower U.S. military casualties. Reuters reported in January that only 34% of Americans opposed the airstrikes, while 33% approved.
Gawthorpe explained, “Americans in general, and even Trump’s supporters, won’t be too keen on seeing someone as the bad guy for doing the same thing as Maduro’s seizure: a quick operation with no American casualties.”
But such an operation would not be without risk. “The biggest risk for Trump is that he cannot guarantee that any operation in Cuba will proceed in the same way.”
Featured Image: Former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is escorted off a plane in New York by U.S. DEA agents after being captured by U.S. special forces.
Image source: Operation Drug Enforcement via Wikimedia Commons
patent: Creative Commons License
